Copper: Overnight copper prices traded in a rangebound and slightly weak fashion both domestically and internationally, with domestic refined copper spot imports showing a small profit and the Comex-LME spread narrowing to around $90 per tonne. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million, surpassing expectations of 7.164 million, while layoffs and discharges fell to their lowest level since March 2025, highlighting continued resilience in the labor market. On the geopolitical front, Iran stated that the U.S. must fully respond to the seven conditions proposed by Iran and implement them before the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Domestically, China's central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions by 2 percentage points to 6%, effective November 15.
On the inventory front, LME copper inventories increased by 15,875 tonnes to 309,650 tonnes, Comex copper inventories rose by 1,730 tonnes to 731,437 tonnes, SHFE copper warrants declined by 1,150 tonnes to 9,450 tonnes, and BC copper warrants remained at 427 tonnes. On the demand side, falling copper prices prompted downstream restocking in China, market supply remained tight, and spot premiums stayed elevated. As oil prices declined and the midterm elections approached, risk aversion in the market weakened, though domestic and international financial market performance continued to weigh on copper market sentiment. Additionally, the narrative of U.S. copper stockpiling deserves ongoing attention, as the substantial increase in LME U.S. inventories is in fact a manifestation of U.S. hidden inventories becoming visible, while also reducing expectations of an LME squeeze. If the market expects the Comex-LME spread to continue converging, inventory回流 and feedback into non-U.S. markets could exert a bearish effect on copper prices in the short term. Overall, a continued cautious stance is warranted, with attention on changes in domestic and international policy and financial market sentiment.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.55% to $15,415 per tonne, while SHFE nickel dropped 0.74% to 116,140 yuan per tonne. On the inventory front, LME inventories decreased by 384 tonnes to 277,854 tonnes, and SHFE warrants fell by 261 tonnes to 88,293 tonnes. In terms of spreads, the LME 0-3 month spread remained in negative territory, while the imported nickel premium stayed at 150 yuan per tonne. On the news front, on October 29, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association stated that numerous nickel smelters in Indonesia are purchasing nickel ore at prices below the mineral benchmark price, squeezing miner profits and jeopardizing national tax revenue. On the same day, the secretary-general of the association noted that four Chinese-owned nickel smelters in Indonesia plan to cut production, which would further exacerbate the decline in ore absorption by local miners. Data shows that as of August this year, Indonesia's average monthly nickel ore output was approximately 22-25 million metric tonnes, but in the past two months it has fallen to around 20 million metric tonnes. Additionally, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources indicated that when formulating the 2027 work plan and budget for nickel ore production quotas, it will take into account the global nickel metal oversupply reflected on the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the 2027 RKAB nickel ore production quota will emphasize global market stability and domestic smelter ore demand. The current production cuts and next year's RKAB policy expectations may provide support, but inventory conditions have not shown much improvement. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic sentiment and industrial policy impacts.
Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: Overnight, alumina AO2701 closed at 2,632 yuan per tonne, down 0.15%. Open interest fell by 1,321 lots to 233,000 lots. Overnight LME closed at $3,044.5 per tonne, down 1.6%, with inventories falling by 1,300 tonnes to 229,500 tonnes. SHFE aluminum AL2612 closed at 22,940 yuan per tonne, down 0.76%, with open interest declining by 2,793 lots to 240,000 lots. Aluminum alloy AD2612 closed at 22,280 yuan per tonne, down 1.76%, with open interest rising by 521 lots to 17,962 lots. On the spot side, the SMM alumina price fell back to 2,645 yuan per tonne. The aluminum ingot spot premium narrowed to 50 yuan per tonne. The Foshan A00 quote fell to 23,530 yuan per tonne, while the Wuxi A00 quote showed a discount of 60 yuan per tonne. Aluminum billet processing fees were stable in most regions, with Wuxi down 20 yuan per tonne and Baotou up 120-190 yuan per tonne. Aluminum rod 1A60 series processing fees were stable, while low-carbon 6/8 series fell by 263 yuan per tonne.
Alumina refineries will continue to aggressively sign next year's long-term contracts, and the subsequent turning point requires two signals to materialize: large-scale winter production cuts or better-than-expected export volumes. Macro sentiment entered a brief dormant period after the Fed held rates steady. Month-end spot premiums converged but social inventories continued to destock. In November, the off-season downstream operating rate declined further, and destocking showed signs of nearing its end, with the largest support for aluminum prices marginally weakening.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: On the 3rd, industrial silicon traded in a rangebound and slightly weak fashion, with the main 2612 contract closing at 8,535 yuan per tonne, down 0.7% intraday, and open interest declining by 2,820 lots to 214,000 lots. The BaiChuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,254 yuan per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price was raised to 8,800 yuan per tonne, and the spot premium widened to 535 yuan per tonne. Polysilicon traded in a rangebound and slightly weak fashion, with the main 2612 contract closing at 33,900 yuan per tonne, down 0.72% intraday. Open interest fell by 1,860 lots to 59,375 lots. The lowest deliverable price was lowered to 37,580 yuan per tonne, and the spot premium narrowed to 5,625 yuan per tonne.
In November, southwestern China will fully shut down furnaces, and electricity prices will continue to push the cost center higher. The proposed resumption of production in eastern Xinjiang remains unresolved, and industrial silicon is consolidating, awaiting confirmation or denial of the Xinjiang restart rumors to clarify direction. The trend of polysilicon supply shrinking month by month is clear, and wafer plants' November production schedules are slightly lower than October's, with priority given to consuming their own inventories and purchasing on a just-in-time basis. Whether polysilicon factory inventories continue to destock marginally will be a key focus.
Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2701 fell 1.33% to 89,300 yuan per tonne, with open interest declining by 5,814 lots to 433,000 lots. On the spot price side, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan per tonne to 93,800 yuan per tonne, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan per tonne to 90,500 yuan per tonne, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 200 yuan per tonne to 83,950 yuan per tonne. On the warrants front, warrant inventories increased by 1,236 tonnes yesterday to 19,537 tonnes.
On the supply side, weekly production increased by 1,406 tonnes month-on-month to 28,269 tonnes, of which spodumene-based lithium production rose by 1,537 tonnes to 16,504 tonnes, lepidolite-based lithium production rose by 114 tonnes to 3,298 tonnes, salt lake lithium production fell by 77 tonnes to 5,664 tonnes, recycling-based lithium production declined by 128 tonnes to 2,355 tonnes, and lithium slag-based production fell by 40 tonnes to 448 tonnes. November lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 1,455 tonnes month-on-month to 122,815 tonnes, with spodumene-based lithium up 3,650 tonnes to 72,350 tonnes, lepidolite-based lithium down 350 tonnes to 13,700 tonnes, salt lake lithium down 1,300 tonnes to 23,990 tonnes, recycling-based lithium up 20 tonnes to 11,330 tonnes, and lithium slag-based production down 565 tonnes to 1,445 tonnes. November ternary material production is expected to rise 2% month-on-month to 80,630 tonnes, and lithium iron phosphate up 0.7% to 630,000 tonnes. November lithium battery production is expected to increase 1% month-on-month to 308.6 GWh, with ternary batteries up 1% to 39.5 GWh and lithium iron phosphate batteries up 2% to 260.8 GWh.
On the inventory side, weekly inventories fell by 1,894 tonnes month-on-month to 128,385 tonnes, with upstream inventories rising by 2,492 tonnes to 36,511 tonnes, cathode plant inventories falling by 1,516 tonnes to 35,739 tonnes, trader inventories declining by 1,308 tonnes to 38,102 tonnes, and battery cell plants and others down 1,562 tonnes to 18,033 tonnes. Weekly data continues to show destocking, but the pace has slowed rapidly month-on-month. November production schedules across institutions are generally weak, and combined with news of potential lithium mine restarts, the strong reality has been weakened. Meanwhile, export tax rebate policy adjustments and China-EU negotiations have dragged down forward export consumption expectations, reinforcing the weak outlook. Fundamentals remain soft, but in the short term, attention should be paid to warrant inventories and market sentiment, while remaining alert to supply-side disruption risks toward year-end.
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