Corn: Neutral Yesterday, the March corn contract reached a high above 2,300 yuan/ton, yet the overall trend remained weak; the CBOT March corn contract closed up by 2.25 cents. On January 12, the China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, which was fully sold at premium prices. However, a subsequent auction of approximately 16,000 tons on January 15 saw a drastic drop in the transaction rate to just 20%. Furthermore, the latest auction announcement indicates that the Sinograin Jilin branch will continue to increase supply on the 16th, releasing a volume of 71,000 tons. Market sentiment remains to be fully released, and discussions regarding bullish and bearish factors before the Spring Festival await further clarity. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) of Brazil stated that Brazil's corn exports in January are expected to reach 3.27 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 2.85 million tons and representing a 2.7% increase compared to the 3.185 million tons exported in the same period last year. Outlook Summary: For the March corn contract, monitor support near 2,250 yuan; expect a gradual upward movement within the daily range of 2,300-2,330 yuan.
Soybean Meal: Neutral Positive signals from US biofuel policy have driven a significant rally in US soybean oil, subsequently pulling US soybeans higher. Following the release of the January USDA report, the supply side of US soybeans is unlikely to provide further bullish momentum, shifting the market focus to changes in US soybean demand and the realization of South American production. The BAGE report shows that as of January 14, soybean planting in Argentina reached 93.9%, with a good-to-excellent rating of 61%, a decrease of 4 percentage points week-on-week. The report notes that early-maturing soybeans in the province of Buenos Aires are entering a critical growth period and require adequate soil moisture to maintain yield potential. Forecasts indicate that precipitation in southern Argentina will remain scarce over the next week, with cumulative totals below 10 mm, potentially exerting pressure on soybean development. Recent auctions of imported soybeans and active trading in distant-month soybean meal contracts reflect both increased downstream restocking意愿 due to lower meal prices and reactions from various market participants based on expectations of structural tightness. The market is currently in a state of "overall ample supply but lingering expectations of structural tightness." Key variables going forward include the actual implementation of customs clearance delay policies and the pace of releases from state reserves of imported soybeans. Additionally, the relatively attractive crushing margins for Brazilian soybeans on distant-month shipments suggest that if future arrival pressure from South America materializes, crushing margins could still be squeezed out through a decline in meal prices. Outlook Summary: Expect short-term consolidation; the May contract is anticipated to trade within a daily range of 2,700-2,900 yuan/ton.
Eggs: Neutral to Slightly Bullish Spot prices in main producing areas continue to rise. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei, is approximately 3.33 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day. The recent sustained strength in spot prices has driven nearby month contracts higher, resulting in a contango pricing structure in the futures market. Temporally, significant uncertainty remains around the Spring Festival period, and the intensity of博弈 among farming entities throughout 2026 is unlikely to ease. If concentrated culling occurs around the Spring Festival, leading to warmer spot prices, this could increase farmers' reluctance to cull or rapidly restore restocking意愿, potentially causing the capacity reduction process to fall short of expectations and thereby bringing correction risks to distant-month contracts. Directionally, the declining trend in layer inventory is expected to continue into Q1 2026, with inventory projected to fall to around 1.299 billion birds by April 2026, albeit at a relatively moderate pace. Trading Strategy: Guard against the risk of a阶段性 reversal in the contango structure in the short term; monitor the sustainability of spot price strength and the contango spread's performance.
Live Hogs: Neutral The average price for live hogs in main producing areas yesterday was approximately 12.74 yuan/kg. Spot performance has been relatively stable, with nearby month contracts rising to reduce the extent of their discount. Yongyi data shows a significant narrowing of the standard-to-heavy hog price spread in most provinces, primarily due to firm standard hog prices and weaker transaction prices for heavier hogs, with a premium of about 0.1 yuan/jin for 300-jin hogs. Yongyi data for December indicates a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in breeding sow inventory, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% in breeding feed, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.18% in newborn piglets. Following the rise in spot prices, market sentiment has generally improved, with farming sector expectations gradually shifting from pessimistic to neutral, and some optimistic groups showing reluctance to sell. There has been a continuous rotation of secondary finishers entering the market recently, indicating a trend of accumulated capacity being pushed back. Trading Strategy: Rising piglet prices may support the valuation of distant-month contracts; medium-term opportunities for long positions could be considered after the premium in distant months converges.
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