Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) is expected to release its second-quarter delivery report before the end of the shortened trading week due to the holiday. Barclays forecasts that the company will deliver 418,000 vehicles in Q2, a figure significantly above the consensus estimate of 396,000.
Analyst Dan Levy noted that for Tesla investors, automotive sales and fundamental factors are increasingly taking a back seat. He stated: "We believe Tesla's stock is currently driven almost entirely by market narratives, with investors anticipating multiple upcoming inflection points in areas like Robotaxi, Optimus, and artificial intelligence (AI). In contrast, fundamental metrics such as Q2 delivery numbers and margins are becoming more peripheral in the discussion."
Nevertheless, Levy and his team still view Barclays' expectation for a Q2 delivery beat and a return to sales growth as positive signals. Levy emphasized: "We believe our forecast may be above investor expectations, but we think it is supported by strong data so far this quarter—good momentum in Europe, solid sales in China, despite a weaker domestic environment in the U.S."
Concurrently, Morgan Stanley has also raised its estimate for Tesla's second-quarter deliveries. Analyst Andrew Percoco and his team now project deliveries of 413,000 vehicles, up from a prior forecast of 373,000. The firm noted that while trends in the U.S. market remain soft, improvements in Europe and China are expected to drive a 7.6% year-over-year increase in deliveries.
The bank indicated that Europe provided the most significant positive surprise, with vehicle registration data significantly higher than the same period last year. April figures continued the recovery trend following a challenging period earlier in the year. The Chinese market also showed signs of improvement, with domestic sales in May rising both sequentially and year-over-year, ending a two-month streak of annual declines and suggesting demand is stabilizing.
Although U.S. sales through May remained below last year's levels, the overall regional performance exceeded Morgan Stanley's previous expectations. The improved delivery outlook has also prompted Morgan Stanley to raise its profit forecasts. The firm increased its Q2 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 11% and slightly raised its full-year revenue and profit projections, primarily reflecting higher delivery volumes and improved automotive gross margins.
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