英国危机亲历：整个养老金市场差点毁灭！

三思期权2022-09-30

亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，...

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Comments

DKTED
2022-09-30
DKTED
1
JaniceZhu
2022-09-30
JaniceZhu
LDI這個行業隨着這次巨震，即使活下來的基金也很難繼續生存下去，這個行業的商業模式的最大缺點已經被暴露了。而如果不用槓桿，這個行業也生存不下去。只能說這個行業在不久的將來很可能會消失。
- Unrelearn:
  j
- Iris俊:
  👍
- ivyteo6911:
  👍👍👍
- u寶寶:
  [微笑]
- Fattkhong:
  [惊讶]
TorisQ
2022-09-30
TorisQ
驚險一躍
gxlzzzkJames
2022-09-30
gxlzzzkJames
英國人自己找死！選舉出這樣的首相就等於自掘墳墓！跟着美國沒有好下場！
- Yezhi1:
  [微笑]

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但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 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