Abstract
AvePoint Inc. will release first-quarter 2026 results after market close (Post Market) on May 7, 2026, and this preview summarizes expected revenue, margins, EPS trajectories, recent operating highlights, and the key metrics investors are likely to track into the print.Market Forecast
Consensus tracking indicates AvePoint Inc.’s first-quarter revenue is projected at 115.83 million US dollars, up 30.65% year over year, with adjusted EPS expected around 0.08, up 49.85% year over year; EBIT is estimated at 20.03 million US dollars, implying 72.33% year-over-year growth. The company exited the prior quarter with a 73.60% gross margin and a 13.64% net profit margin, providing a favorable baseline for margin narrative, although the company has not guided a specific gross margin or net margin range for this quarter in the data reviewed. Given the mix shift toward recurring solutions and the efficiency gains reflected in the last quarter’s profitability, investors will look for confirmation that high-60s to low-70s gross margins remain sustainable while operating leverage continues to improve. On EPS, the market will focus on whether high-single-cent EPS can be maintained or exceeded as subscription scale and cost discipline progress.The main business focus remains on expanding adoption of the AvePoint Confidence Platform across data security, governance, and resilience use cases, with the company emphasizing subscription momentum and operating efficiency gains. Within the portfolio, software services stand out as the most promising engine, having generated 319.17 million US dollars in the most recently reported period, supported by company-wide annual recurring revenue growth of 27% year over year as an indicator of expanding demand.
Last Quarter Review
In the most recent quarter reported, AvePoint Inc. delivered revenue of 114.69 million US dollars, a 28.60% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 73.60%; GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was 15.64 million US dollars, a 13.64% net profit margin and a 20.18% quarter-on-quarter increase, while adjusted EPS was 0.10, up 350% year over year. Profitability trends were supported by non-GAAP operating income expansion for fiscal 2025, which rose to 79.20 million US dollars and lifted the non-GAAP operating margin to 18.90%. By business line, software services contributed 319.17 million US dollars, services 53.84 million US dollars, term licenses and support 41.39 million US dollars, and maintenance 5.11 million US dollars; alongside total annual recurring revenue growth of 27% year over year, this mix underscores the recurring profile that underpinned the quarter.Current Quarter Outlook
Core subscription and services trajectory
Revenue for the first quarter is forecast at 115.83 million US dollars, up 30.65% year over year, signaling sustained momentum after the 28.60% increase reported in the prior quarter. With gross margin at 73.60% in the preceding period and EBIT forecast to grow 72.33% year over year to 20.03 million US dollars, the narrative centers on whether AvePoint Inc. can pair top-line expansion with further operating leverage. The adjusted EPS forecast of approximately 0.08 implies nearly half-on-year growth, building on recent step-ups in profitability. Management has emphasized scaling its Confidence Platform across data security, governance, and resilience use cases, which naturally increases the attach potential per customer and supports higher average revenue per account; investors will monitor whether this translates into ARR expansion and lower unit costs as scale builds. Renewal activity and cross-sell effectiveness are likely to be focal points given the company’s large subscription base, and commentary on win rates, upsell velocity, and net revenue retention will be important to justify the double-digit revenue growth outlook.Within services, the balance between professional services and higher-margin software subscriptions affects reported gross margin. Continued progress in product-led deployments and standardized implementation frameworks can keep delivery costs contained, helping the company protect gross margins even as customer count increases. At the operating level, any incremental investments in sales capacity, R&D for AI-driven features, or platform integration will be weighed against the margin trajectory; the company’s recent improvement in non-GAAP operating margin provides a helpful context, but investors are likely to scrutinize whether expense growth remains a step below revenue growth. Free cash flow and deferred revenue trends typically track with subscription health, and given the recent improvement at the annual level, the market will likely seek corroborating first-quarter cash metrics to confirm that growth is converting into liquidity.
Most promising growth engine: Software services and platform expansion
Software services remain the largest revenue contributor, at 319.17 million US dollars in the latest reported period, and operate at a margin structure that supports overall corporate gross margin. This business is anchored by multi-module adoption of the Confidence Platform, where customer usage can expand from a single use case into adjacent areas such as data security, governance, and resilience. The company recently highlighted a 27% year-over-year increase in total annual recurring revenue to 416.80 million US dollars for fiscal 2025; while not a segment-specific metric, it is a direct indicator of broad subscription health and a vital proxy for runway within software services. Cross-sell of new modules to existing customers tends to be the most cost-effective growth motion, compressing payback periods and enabling reinvestment in innovation; this dynamic is consistent with the EBIT forecast trajectory and the expectation of improved operating leverage this quarter.AI-driven data management and resilience features have become increasingly relevant within the product roadmap, providing incremental use cases that can raise wallet share. As modules mature and customer cohorts adopt broader functionality, contractual expansions can lift per-customer revenue; investors will be attentive to disclosures around attach rates and the mix of new versus expansion ARR. Packaging strategies, including bundled suites and add-ons, can accelerate multi-module penetration and support durable net revenue retention, and successful execution here would help explain the projected 30.65% revenue growth and 49.85% EPS growth in the quarter. Pricing optimization and migration of legacy license models to term licenses and subscriptions also provide levers for improving predictability. Finally, platform standardization, streamlined implementation, and digital-led onboarding can restrain service delivery costs and sustain the high-70s to low-70s gross margin profile that was evident last quarter.
Stock-price swing factors this quarter
The stock is likely to respond most to revenue and ARR commentary, margin trajectory, and any change in the pace of efficiency gains implied by EBIT and EPS. A performance around or above 115.83 million US dollars in revenue with confirming commentary on ARR and net revenue retention would validate the double-digit growth cadence that framed the prior quarter. Given the company’s 73.60% gross margin baseline, investors will also examine whether mix and cost controls allow AvePoint Inc. to maintain or expand gross margin while absorbing growth investments, particularly if sales capacity and R&D are being scaled to support new modules. On profits, an EBIT result near or above 20.03 million US dollars and adjusted EPS around 0.08 would affirm operating leverage; deviations either way could drive volatility depending on whether they are tied to sustainable cost dynamics or timing effects.Cash generation will remain part of the near-term debate. The company recently disclosed annual free cash flow of 81.60 million US dollars; investors may look for early-quarter signals that this momentum continues, such as healthy deferred revenue and disciplined collections. Billings and large deal linearity can influence intra-quarter perceptions of durability, and any shift in enterprise purchasing timing could affect short-term growth optics without changing multi-quarter demand. Finally, guidance quality will be a critical swing factor: if management pairs a solid print with constructive qualitative color on pipeline conversion, platform attach rates, and module adoption, the market is likely to recalibrate growth and profitability expectations upward; cautious tone or indications of elongating sales cycles could have the opposite effect.
Analyst Opinions
Across the period reviewed, published opinions skew bullish with no material bearish views identified, yielding a 100% to 0% bullish-to-bearish ratio. Two named institutions reiterate constructive stances: B. Riley maintained a Buy rating while trimming its price target to 22.00 US dollars on February 2, 2026, and Scotiabank reiterated a Buy rating with a 13.00 US dollars target in late March 2026. Additionally, a February 2, 2026 update indicated an average Buy rating and a mean price target of 18.98 US dollars, underscoring broadly positive institutional sentiment into the first-quarter release window.The prevailing bullish case centers on three pillars that echo the quantitative setup for this quarter. First, revenue growth is expected at 30.65% year over year, which compares favorably to the 28.60% pace realized in the most recent quarter; this continuity suggests the growth engine remains intact. Second, margin signals are constructive: the company reported a 73.60% gross margin, and non-GAAP operating efficiency improved at the annual level, which aligns with the 72.33% year-over-year EBIT growth estimate for the current quarter. Third, adjusted EPS is projected to reach approximately 0.08, up 49.85% year over year, reflecting scaling benefits from subscription revenue and operating cost discipline. Analysts emphasizing Buy ratings appear to be underwriting continued ARR expansion, platform cross-sell, and a steady cost trajectory that together can sustain double-digit top-line growth with improving profitability.
B. Riley’s maintained Buy rating, despite a trimmed target, implicitly acknowledges both upside from recurring revenue scale and normalizing valuation assumptions as growth matures. The reduction in target price, while retaining a positive stance, suggests a focus on balancing execution strength with a more conservative multiple rather than signaling a fundamental change in outlook. Scotiabank’s Buy rating and 13.00 US dollars target highlight a supportive view on the near-term setup, likely reflecting comfort with the projected revenue and EPS trajectories alongside the improving operating metrics disclosed recently. Taken together with the mean target of 18.98 US dollars, the directional message from the institutions reviewed is that the company’s blend of growth and margin progression remains attractive into the quarter.
In assessing how these views map to potential share reactions on May 7, 2026, the consensus sensitivities are clear. A top-line beat coupled with reaffirmed or improved commentary on ARR and attach rates would validate the Buy-leaning stance and could support upside to medium-term estimates. Delivering EBIT near or ahead of the 20.03 million US dollars forecast while holding gross margin close to recent levels would further reinforce the operating leverage story that underpins bullish targets. On the other hand, if EPS were to land below approximately 0.08 or if management were to signal a moderation in ARR growth, sentiment could test the lower end of targets despite the absence of outright bearish ratings in the recent period. The key to the bullish majority view is the consistency of subscription growth and the translation of that growth into cash flow, margins, and EPS.
The bullish consensus is grounded in the company’s own metrics and forecasts reflected in the data reviewed. The 27% annual growth in total ARR to 416.80 million US dollars, paired with improved non-GAAP operating margin to 18.90%, strengthens the case that scale benefits are accruing. That backdrop supports confidence in the quarter’s projected 30.65% revenue growth and 49.85% EPS increase. While individual institutions calibrate price targets differently—B. Riley at 22.00 US dollars and Scotiabank at 13.00 US dollars—the shared Buy stance reflects a view that the risk-reward remains favorable if execution on platform adoption, cross-sell, and cost discipline persists. For this print, the majority opinion will be validated by evidence of durable ARR growth, stable gross margins near the 73.60% baseline, and EBIT delivery consistent with or ahead of the 20.03 million US dollars forecast.
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