JPMorgan Chase released a research report indicating that the bank conducted a field trip in Yichun last week, visiting lithium refineries/tailings facilities and meeting with local experts. Key observations included: (1) The restart timeline for the Jianxiawo lithium mining area, owned by CATL (03750), remains uncertain, and lithium prices are expected to stay elevated until operations resume. (2) The production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lepidolite mines has fallen to approximately 60,000 yuan per tonne. (3) Current price levels are incentivizing additional supply, with a significant surge in recycling volumes anticipated by 2028. Following the trip, JPMorgan expressed greater optimism regarding short-term lithium prices but adopted a more cautious stance on the medium-term trajectory. The bank was notably impressed by how low lepidolite production costs have fallen and anticipates further cost reductions in the future. JPMorgan identified short-term trading opportunities in lithium stocks, suggesting share prices are poised to catch up with the recent rally in lithium carbonate prices. In the bank's view, lithium prices are projected to remain high as investors push back their expectations for mine restarts.
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