On April 10, gold experienced fluctuating gains during the previous trading session. It opened lower in the Asian session, dropping to around 4700, where long positions were initiated. Prices began rising during the European session and reached a daily high of 4801 dollars during the U.S. session. The long positions were automatically closed with profit near 4800, yielding a gain of 100 dollars. Gold ultimately closed at 4766 dollars, marking the third consecutive positive daily close.
Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains in a highly uncertain and fragile balance. Despite a ceasefire agreement taking effect, tensions among involved parties persist. Iran has informed Pakistan, acting as a mediator, that its delegation will not participate in talks with the United States until a ceasefire is implemented in Lebanon. This suggests that the first round of direct negotiations, originally scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, may be postponed. The delay lowers expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough and reignites safe-haven sentiment.
Market focus is now intensely concentrated on the U.S. March CPI data to be released later today. This will be a key variable influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations remains a core factor for geopolitical risk. If the CPI reading exceeds expectations, it could reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance and put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a lower-than-expected figure might modestly revive expectations for interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for gold.
From a technical perspective, intraday gold may continue to exhibit volatility. Based on the hourly chart structure, close attention should be paid to the battle around the 4800 level. If this resistance holds, the hourly chart could potentially form a "head and shoulders top" pattern, increasing bearish technical expectations. However, whether this pattern materializes will ultimately depend on fundamental triggers. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. CPI release is critical. Given that rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions have heightened inflation concerns, market expectations for Fed rate hikes have increased, which could conversely provide some upward momentum for gold. With the ambiguity surrounding U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and growing inflation worries adding to Fed hike expectations, mixed signals make short-term directional calls on gold difficult. Therefore, the primary strategy for the day should be cautious observation, adjusting tactics later based on clearer information.
In summary, treat short-term movements as range-bound, with 4700-4800 being the core trading range. Volatility is likely to intensify around the CPI release. It is advisable to trade lightly within the range before the data and follow the trend after the announcement, while maintaining strict stop-loss measures. Additionally, since it is Friday, be mindful of potential profit-taking by bulls. Aggressive traders may consider short positions if gold fails to firmly break above the 4800 level.
Today's trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Execute short positions between 4780-4785, with a stop loss at 4801, targeting 4700-4650. Hold positions if the support breaks. If gold stabilizes above the 4800 level, close shorts and consider long positions on a pullback, targeting 4850-4880.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Friday, April 10: 20:30 U.S. March CPI Year-over-Year (Unadjusted) 20:30 U.S. March CPI Month-over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) 20:30 U.S. March Core CPI Month-over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) 20:30 U.S. March Core CPI Year-over-Year (Unadjusted) 22:00 U.S. Preliminary April One-Year Inflation Expectations 22:00 U.S. Preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 22:00 U.S. February Factory Orders Month-over-Month
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