Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that driven by rising health awareness and long-term brand cultivation, the market share of sugar-free ready-to-drink (RTD) tea has steadily increased. By September 2025, sugar-free RTD tea accounted for 35.12% of the total RTD tea market, up from 31.66% in January 2024. In provinces like Hunan, Hubei, Beijing, and Shanghai, sugar-free tea is nearing parity with sugary tea, with Hunan’s sugar-free tea share reaching 48.54%, just 2.92% behind sugary tea. As competition in the sugar-free tea sector becomes clearer, market concentration is accelerating toward leading brands, which are leveraging early brand and product strategies to rapidly capture market share post-channel expansion. Key insights from Zhongtai Securities include:
**Brand Loyalty Strengthens, Industry Shifts to Rational Competition** 2025 marks a critical transition for the sugar-free tea industry. Growth in sugar-free tea sales during the peak beverage season (April–September) slowed significantly compared to 2024, with only July’s growth rate matching the previous year, signaling a shift from explosive expansion to a battle for market share. Consumer willingness to experiment has waned, while brand loyalty has become a defining industry trend.
**Price System Adjusts Positively** From 2023 to 2025, the average price per unit of sugar-free tea rose from CNY 5.1 to CNY 5.6, driven by increased adoption of larger packaging. While the price per 100ml dropped sharply in 2023–2024 due to price wars, the decline narrowed in 2025, reflecting structural optimization rather than cutthroat competition. The industry’s price war phase has largely ended, stabilizing price levels.
**Optimized Competition: Consolidation and Innovation**
In 2025, competition rationalized, with market share concentrating toward leaders. By June 2025,
**Expanding Consumption Scenarios and Channels** 1. **Product Sizes for Diverse Scenarios**: Demand for sugar-free tea has evolved beyond thirst-quenching to emotional fulfillment. The industry is moving beyond 500ml single-size reliance, with larger packaging (e.g., 1.5L for offices, achieving 60% repurchase rates) catering to family gatherings, camping, and workplaces. Full-scenario coverage is becoming a key competitive edge.
2. **Flavor and Cultural Expansion**: Over 70% of sugar-free tea consumers in 2023 were under 30, leaving room to tap older demographics. Brands are adopting two strategies: - **Taste Innovation**: Regional-limited products like Dongfang Yezi’s "Chrysanthemum Pu’er" in Guangdong align with local preferences. - **Cultural Integration**: Dongfang Yezi’s "Tangerine Peel White Tea" ties traditional wellness culture to modern branding, using platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin to elevate products from functional drinks to cultural symbols.
3. **Precision Channel Management**: Over 80% of RTD tea sales occur offline, with convenience stores (33.8%) as the core channel. Emerging channels like snack stores/membership clubs, though small (4.5%), grew 44%. Brands like Dongfang Yezi and Dongpeng are shifting from broad distribution to data-driven models, incentivizing retailers with profit-sharing and using analytics for inventory and R&D optimization.
**Investment Recommendation**
Zhongtai Securities expects market concentration to continue favoring leading brands like
**Risks**: Macroeconomic volatility, intensified competition, weaker-than-expected demand, slow channel reforms, unsuccessful product launches, raw material price fluctuations, and food safety risks.
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