Last week in the gold market, international gold prices rebounded from lows to close higher, recovering the losses from the previous week and marking the first weekly gain in five weeks.
The price returned above the 60-week moving average, with bullish momentum strengthening, suggesting a potential bottoming-out adjustment followed by a phased rebound, with an expectation to test the $4,500 target.
In terms of specific price movements, the week opened at $4,082.66 per ounce on Monday, hit the weekly low of $3,943.86 on Tuesday, then rose continuously to touch the weekly high of $4,194.96 on Friday, finally closing at $4,170.05.
The weekly range was $251.1, with a gain of $87.39, representing a 2.14% increase.
Influencing factors included initial selling pressure early in the week due to attacks between the US and Iran and hawkish comments from Fed officials about inflation remaining too high and potentially requiring rate hikes, which increased expectations for a September hike.
However, support from buying interest emerged, followed by reports of positive communication between the US and Iran, and weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls and ADP data.
Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Wash that inflation expectations and risks have declined in recent weeks reduced bets on further Fed tightening, while central bank gold purchases resumed.
Safe-haven and rate-cut trades combined to boost bullish sentiment, lifting gold prices.
Looking to the start of this week on Monday, July 6th, international gold opened slightly higher at $4,181.11 per ounce and traded in a narrow, firm range, extending last week's recovery momentum.
The speaker of Iran's parliament stated that reaching an agreement with the US is possible despite difficulties, which could further dampen bullish momentum for oil prices and slow inflation expectations, supporting gold.
Therefore, in the short term, gold prices are expected to maintain their rebound trajectory.
Key data to watch during the day includes the final US S&P Global Services PMI for June, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June, and the US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for June.
Overall market expectations are seen as favorable for gold, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips and looking for gains today.
Fundamental Analysis
Currently, while the US-Iran situation remains unclear, the outlook is for peace to be achieved, which would reduce inflationary pressures and prevent expectations for Fed rate hikes from continuously strengthening.
The recent decline is seen as having been digested, with subsequent movements likely to be more about consolidation and adjustment.
Furthermore, although non-farm payrolls declined significantly, the unemployment rate also decreased, presenting a mixed picture that does not fully force the Fed to immediately shift to an accommodative monetary policy.
A lower unemployment rate suggests corporate layoffs remain relatively limited, with no comprehensive recession signals yet from the labor market.
Thus, market expectations for the timing of Fed rate hikes have only been pushed further back, not eliminated.
Overall, the view is that gold's strength is only temporary, requiring more data for sustained support.
Focus should be on the upcoming US inflation data release on July 14th, which will be a core reference for subsequent Fed monetary policy adjustments.
Until the overall situation shows a clear and stable shift, gold's rebound should still be viewed as a phased one.
However, over time, the long-term bullish outlook for new highs remains unchanged.
Global debt has risen to $353 trillion in the first half of 2026, with government debt nearing a historical high as a share of GDP.
Fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures will continue to support gold's role as a monetary hedge.
Simultaneously, gold's allocation within global managed funds and ETF assets remains well below strategic allocation ranges, indicating significant room for increased allocation in the future.
Overall, structural drivers such as central bank gold purchases, high global debt, geopolitical risks, and demand for portfolio diversification are expected to support continued gold price increases into 2027, with the potential to test historical highs again.
Technical Analysis
On the monthly chart, gold formed a bearish candlestick in June, indicating stable bearish power and suggesting the potential for a further pullback to the support of the Bollinger Band middle band around $3,820 in July, or even lower.
However, there is currently no strong inclination for further declines, and the price has shown signs of stabilizing near this support level.
With the Bollinger Bands showing signs of contracting, it suggests the price may consolidate within a broad range of $4,500 to $3,600 over the coming months before resuming its upward climb.
On the weekly chart, gold has formed a bottoming reversal pattern over the past two weeks, also creating a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential for consecutive rebound sessions ahead.
However, before a sustained move above $4,500, there remains the risk of another corrective pullback.
Therefore, the current trading approach is to first consider a phased bullish view, with a break above $4,500 potentially strengthening bullish momentum.
Support at the 100-week moving average should be watched; a further pullback to this level would also present a good re-entry point for bullish positions.
On the daily chart, after a period of consolidation and bottoming near horizontal support and the rising trend channel support established from early 2024, gold has rebounded consecutively.
In the short term, there is potential for a rebound towards the $4,300-$4,400 range.
Support from short-term moving averages should be monitored for continued bullish opportunities.
Intraday Trading Reference Points
Specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on real-time account notifications.
For Gold: Support is seen around $4,160 or $4,110; Resistance is seen around $4,220 or $4,270.
For Silver: Support is seen around $62.35 or $61.65; Resistance is seen around $63.80 or $65.10.
Comments