Recently, the most direct impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts has been the rise in energy prices—such as crude oil and natural gas. When energy prices increase, the market becomes concerned about "inflation." Once inflation expectations emerge, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not easily cut interest rates, as one of its core responsibilities is to curb inflation. This expectation subsequently drives up U.S. Treasury yields. Following the outbreak of conflicts, substantial funds have flowed into the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, and the combined effect of these two factors has directly suppressed gold prices.
Amid volatile market conditions, is gold still a viable investment? According to the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, in the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate around recent high levels. Risk events (such as tensions in the Middle East) or macroeconomic data reshaping expectations for monetary easing could reignite upward momentum. From a medium-term perspective, if global inflation does not decline significantly and central banks continue diversifying their reserves, gold will retain its value as a safe-haven asset and for portfolio allocation. It is possible for international gold prices to break through $5,500, with a longer-term focus on testing the $6,000 mark.
In market performance, despite fluctuations in international gold prices, leading A-share gold stocks rallied against the trend on March 9. Western Gold rose over 4%, while Shandong Gold International gained more than 3%. Other stocks, including Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Chuangxin Xincai, Shandong Gold, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, also saw gains.
Among popular ETFs, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which encompasses leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector, trended upward throughout the day. Its intraday price fell by 0.59%, but as of the latest update, it recorded net subscriptions of 6 million units. Over the past five trading days, it has consistently attracted capital inflows, totaling 146 million yuan, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector's prospects and active accumulation of positions.
Notably, HALO trading (Heavy Assets Low Obsolescence) has become a core theme in global capital markets. Its underlying logic involves investing in tangible hard assets that are difficult for AI to replace and are essential for AI development. The nonferrous metals sector, characterized by heavy asset attributes, strategic resource scarcity, and essential demand for AI infrastructure, stands as a key beneficiary of HALO trading.
Looking ahead, can the nonferrous metals sector continue to rise? Industrial Securities believes that by mid-year, the sector may regain momentum for growth. The current cycle in nonferrous metals is driven by overseas manufacturing restructuring and unconventional inventory building amid deglobalization trends, differing from traditional monetary cycles. This cycle is expected to be more prolonged and persistent.
[Nonferrous Metals Sector at an Inflection Point, "Super Cycle" Gains Momentum] Huabao's Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index that comprehensively covers industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. The index includes precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery), spanning different phases of the economic cycle. This broad coverage enables better capture of beta opportunities across the sector. Additionally, the ETF is eligible for margin trading, making it an efficient tool for gaining exposure to the nonferrous metals sector.
As of the end of February, Huabao's Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) had a net asset value of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover exceeding 100 million yuan over the past month. Among the three ETFs tracking the same index in the market, it leads in both size and liquidity.
Note: Huabao's Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) was previously known as the Nonferrous Metals Leaders ETF. Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant, and short-term price movements do not indicate future performance. Investors should make rational decisions based on their financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position and risk management.
ETF Fee Information: When subscribing or redeeming fund units, subscription and redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Intraday trading fees are subject to the rates set by securities firms. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee.
Feeder Fund Fee Information: For Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee is 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 2 million yuan or more, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan, and 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. For Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C), no subscription fee is charged. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% applies.
Risk Disclosure: Huabao's Nonferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, which has a base date of December 31, 2013, and was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five full years is as follows: 2021, 35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, 2.96%; 2025, 91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its rules, and its historical performance does not guarantee future results. The mention of individual stocks in this article is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or reflect the holdings or trading activities of the fund manager. The fund manager assesses the fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and higher risk-profile investors. Suitability assessments should be confirmed with sales institutions. All information provided (including but not limited to stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for their investment decisions. The views, analysis, and predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice, and no liability is accepted for direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investments carry risks; past performance does not indicate future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the fund's future performance. Invest with caution.
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