According to statistics from GGII, China's commercial and industrial energy storage system shipments are projected to reach 24 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2025. This represents a 100% increase compared to the 12 GWh shipped in 2024. Of the 2025 total, 7.5 GWh are destined for overseas markets, accounting for 31% of the shipments.
Data source: Gaogong Industry Research Institute (GGII), March 2026.
In terms of policy, the most significant change anticipated in 2026 is the full marketization of fixed time-of-use electricity prices. The comprehensive rollout of the new time-of-use pricing policy signifies that the traditional model, where energy storage projects relied on fixed price differentials for arbitrage, is no longer sustainable. Electricity prices will be entirely determined by market supply and demand, leading to significantly increased volatility and uncertainty. Policy document "No. 650" requires that for direct green power connection projects, the proportion of annual self-generated and self-consumed electricity must be no less than 60%, and must constitute no less than 30% of the project's total electricity consumption (increasing to over 35% by 2030). By February 2026, 17 provinces in China had already issued detailed implementation rules or plans for direct green power connections, further boosting the demand for energy storage within the source-grid-load-storage framework.
Regarding pricing, the overall cost of commercial and industrial energy storage systems is expected to face upward pressure in 2026. The main driving factors include: 1) Rising battery cell prices: Early in 2026, lithium carbonate prices briefly exceeded 170,000 RMB per ton, significantly pushing up cell costs. Currently, the price of 314Ah battery cells has increased by 0.03-0.05 RMB/Wh compared to the end of 2025. Even with the mass production of 500Ah+ cells expected in the second half of 2026, significant cost reductions are not anticipated; instead, requirements for temperature control and fire safety are increased. 2) Technology upgrade costs: The widespread adoption of new technologies, such as Silicon Carbide (SiC) devices and the expanded use of immersion liquid cooling, enhances system performance but also raises initial costs. 3) Structural supply-demand tightness: The industry is rapidly transitioning from 314Ah to 500Ah+ large cells, but large-scale release of new production capacity is not expected until the second half of 2026. This leads to a relative shortage of mainstream cell supply in the short term, with high-quality capacity being prioritized for leading companies and large-scale storage applications.
Despite rising costs, competition in the end market remains intense. System integrators are caught between rising cell costs and fierce market competition, limiting their ability to adjust prices. The average system price is therefore expected to remain in the range of 0.6-0.65 RMB/Wh.
Data source: Gaogong Industry Research Institute (GGII), March 2026.
In product development, 2026 is expected to see the sequential release of new 2-hour and 4-hour systems equipped with 400Ah+/500Ah+ cells. Demand for long-duration storage of 4 hours or more, as well as for products capable of one charge-discharge cycle per day, is increasing significantly. Immersion liquid cooling technology, with its superior heat dissipation efficiency and space-saving advantages, is expected to see its share in 500Ah+ systems grow further. By 2026, the average price of 6-inch SiC MOSFET wafers has dropped to $850 per piece, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestically produced SiC power devices is projected to continue rising.
Notes: 1) The above shipment figures exclude pure OEM volumes but include branded shipments. 2) Commercial and industrial storage enterprises primarily focused on internal group/company use, and investment-focused firms that outsource manufacturing, are not included in this ranking. 3) Shipments include products in forms such as all-in-one units and containers; application scenarios include general commercial and industrial use, solar-plus-storage charging stations, zero-carbon parks, data centers, and grid-connected microgrids (behind-the-meter). 4) Shipments in DC form are not included in the statistics. 5) Data is based on GGII research and may differ from actual corporate shipment figures.
In the domestic market, segments such as storage-plus-charging, direct green power connections, and zero-carbon parks are expected to see significant growth in 2026. According to the "15th Five-Year Plan," China aims to build approximately 100 national-level zero-carbon parks, which explicitly require the configuration of electrochemical energy storage or thermal/cooling storage facilities. Three national departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, have jointly released the first list of 52 national-level zero-carbon parks for construction. High-power ultra-fast charging piles pose significant challenges to the grid, making the co-location of energy storage the most economical and effective solution. Municipal governments in cities like Chongqing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Hainan have explicitly proposed plans to build "cities/islands of ultra-fast charging." For instance,
2025 marked a year of explosive growth for overseas commercial and industrial storage, with the overseas shipments of Chinese companies surging by 275% year-on-year. Rapid price reductions for systems and policy incentives for overseas commercial and industrial storage were the main drivers, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe. Regions such as Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, and Lithuania stimulated demand by introducing substantial subsidies targeted at the user-side/commercial and industrial sector.
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