On the morning of October 29, the optical module supply chain suffered a sharp selloff. The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao (159363) underlying index, which focuses on leading optical module companies, fell 6.5% intraday to hit a new low for the year, with investors showing relatively high willingness to buy on dips. Weighted stocks fell broadly, with Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 300394) approaching a 20% limit down, Eoptolink dropping more than 8%, and Zhongji Innolight falling more than 6%. On the news front, the first third-quarter report among the "Yizhongtian" trio was released. Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd. announced its results last night, showing revenue of 1.923 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2026, up 31.50% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 879 million yuan, up 55.30% year-on-year. Some institutions commented that Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd.'s Q3 results were slightly below expectations, as the market had generally anticipated Q3 net profit above 900 million yuan. Breaking it down, the miss stems from two overlapping factors.
The first layer is that core material constraints are actually affecting delivery. The company sits in the upstream optical component segment, with ample orders on the demand side, but constrained by the supply of high-speed optical chips, its earnings elasticity cannot be fully released. LightCounting estimates that the InP laser shortage may persist until mid-2027, with the 200G EML supply gap in 2026 at approximately 20%. "Ample orders, constrained materials" is a common constraint currently facing the industry.
The second layer is that the miss was mainly on the profit side, not the revenue side. Third-quarter revenue grew 31.50% year-on-year, higher than the cumulative 21.25% for the first three quarters; operating costs were 1.779 billion yuan, down 5.69% year-on-year; operating profit was 2.408 billion yuan, with gross margin continuing to rise. However, third-quarter asset impairment and credit impairment combined were approximately 27.5 million yuan more on a quarter-on-quarter basis, and income tax expense increased by 56.29 million yuan quarter-on-quarter, totaling approximately 84 million yuan, directly压低 net margin by 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In other words, the reported profit falling short of expectations is more related to changes in these two non-operating items. Since the profit gap stems more from non-operating items and material pacing, the key judgment is not the single-quarter number itself, but whether demand is real and whether stockpiling can convert into revenue. From this perspective, the leading indicators in the financial statements and industry progress actually provide positive clues, and also serve as an important observation window to distinguish "quarterly pacing disruption" from "industry trend reversal."
On the industry side, leading indicators are improving: inventory at the end of Q3 rose 37.1% quarter-on-quarter, contract liabilities rose 226.8%, demand has not weakened, and advance stocking and order locking are underway, with inventory mainly for CPO stockpiling. CPO is actually advancing: 1.6T optical engines are in mass production, FAU/ELS are being delivered steadily, with volume ramp starting in 2027; the OCP summit broke the expectation of full replacement, extending the demand cycle for optical components. North American cloud providers have raised capital expenditure, and leading companies have announced 1.6T/800G demand growth and buybacks. At the current juncture, how should we view computing power and optics? Huatai Securities stated that this OCP (Open Compute Project) summit's presentations and exchanges confirm that the computing power industry trend remains unchanged. This week's North American cloud provider earnings may become a key node for a market expectation turning point, with some AI commercialization increments expected to be reflected in related cloud platform revenue. The optical module and optical fiber sectors have already gone through a round of bottoming, and earnings catalysts are approaching. It is recommended to pay attention to valuation repair opportunities for leading companies.
To gain exposure to optical module leaders plus AI applications, it is suggested to watch the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao (159363) and its off-exchange feeder funds (Class A 023407, Class C 023408), which focus on optical module CPO leaders while also covering AI applications. The underlying index's combined weight of "Zhongji Innolight + Eoptolink + Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd." exceeds 35%, making it a core standard-bearer for AI computing power. Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Wind, etc. Note: As of September 30, 2026, according to CNI, the top three constituents of the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index are Eoptolink (weight 12.98%), Zhongji Innolight (weight 12.09%), and Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.,Ltd. (weight 10.8%). Reminder: Recent market volatility may be relatively large, and short-term gains or losses do not predict future performance. Investors must invest rationally based on their own financial conditions and risk tolerance, and pay close attention to position and risk management. ETF fee disclosure: When investors subscribe to or redeem fund shares, the subscription and redemption agent may charge a commission of no more than 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to actual charges by the securities company, and no sales service fee is charged. Feeder fund fee disclosure: Huabao ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Initiating Feeder C does not charge a subscription fee; the redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; the sales service fee is 0.3%. Huabao ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Initiating Feeder A charges a subscription fee of 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan, 0.6% for amounts of 1 million yuan (inclusive) to 2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 2 million yuan (inclusive) and above; the redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; no sales service fee is charged. According to the fund manager's assessment, the risk level of ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao is R4-medium-high risk, suitable for investors with aggressive risk profiles (C4) and above. The suitability matching opinion should be subject to the sales institution. Risk disclosure: ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index. The index base date is December 28, 2018, and the launch date is July 11, 2024. The index's annual returns from 2021 to 2025 were: 17.57%, -34.52%, 47.83%, 38.44%, and 106.35%, respectively. The index's annualized volatility over the same period was 23.73%, 27.34%, 38.02%, 45.42%, and 41.1%, respectively. The index constituent composition is adjusted in due course according to the index compilation rules, and its backtested historical performance does not predict the index's future performance. The index constituents mentioned in this article are for display purposes only. Individual stock descriptions do not constitute investment advice in any form, nor do they represent the holdings information or trading movements of any fund under the manager. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any investment decisions they make independently. In addition, any views, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice in any form to readers, and shall not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content of this article. Fund investment involves risks. Past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Fund investment requires caution. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!
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