Gold market review and key views: Last week, London spot gold closed at $4,284 per ounce (a week-on-week decline of 2.1%), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 926 yuan per gram (a week-on-week decline of 1.6%).
Geopolitical risks kept shifting, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5.2% to a new high.
The changing and complex situation of the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to affect global capital markets. Iran had proposed a plan to "reopen the strait within seven days," but only on the condition that the United States lift its maritime blockade, cancel oil sanctions, and restore a regional ceasefire.
Trump rejected this proposal on September 26 and declared that "the U.S. side fully controls the Strait of Hormuz," with a stance clearly leaning toward toughness.
Affected by this, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.2%, reaching a new high since 2007.
Looking ahead, September PMI data and nonfarm payroll data will be released this week, while geopolitical conditions will also continue to affect oil and gold prices.
From the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals, the September policy meeting positioned the U.S. economy as entering an overheated state, and investors should watch whether the upcoming nonfarm payrolls show signs of cooling.
On the geopolitical front, oil prices hit new multi-year highs as two major global energy passages, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, were simultaneously blocked, and the situation remains uncertain.
In the medium to long term, as the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to worsen, the debt problem is difficult to fundamentally resolve, and central bank gold purchases continue under the de-dollarization trend, the allocation logic of gold as a hedge against dollar credit continues to strengthen.
Key signals for gold investment to watch in the coming week: (1) progress in the U.S.-Iran situation; (2) September PMI in both China and the United States; (3) September nonfarm payroll data and the unemployment rate.
Allocation tools: Huaan Gold series products. For investors who wish to allocate to gold through public funds, Huaan Fund has formed a relatively complete gold product matrix: Gold ETF Huaan (518880): closely tracks domestic spot gold prices and is an efficient tool for on-exchange investors to allocate to gold; Gold ETF Feeder A (000216)/Feeder C (000217)/Feeder I (022653): provides convenient subscription and redemption channels for off-exchange investors, especially those with fixed investment and medium- to long-term allocation needs (Class A is suitable for long-term holding, Class C is suitable for short- to medium-term trading, and Class I is suitable for short-term trading); Gold Stock ETF Huaan (159321): focuses on upstream listed companies in the gold industry chain, and while gold prices rise, it is expected to capture the elasticity of gold stocks, making it suitable for investors who seek higher elasticity in gold assets.
Fund fee notes: Regarding ETF product subscription/redemption fees, when investors handle cash subscription or redemption, the sales institution may charge a certain fee/commission at a standard not exceeding 0.5%, which includes relevant fees charged by exchanges, registration and settlement institutions, and others. For Gold ETF Feeder A (000216), for a single subscription amount M < 1 million, the subscription fee rate is 0.60%; for a single subscription amount of 1 million ≤ M < 3 million, the subscription fee rate is 0.40%; for a single subscription amount of 3 million ≤ M < 5 million, the subscription fee rate is 0.15%; for a single subscription amount M ≥ 5 million, the subscription fee is 1,000 yuan per transaction. For redemption, if the holding period Y < 7 days, the redemption fee rate is 1.50%; if the holding period is 7 days ≤ Y < 1 year, the redemption fee rate is 0.10%; if the holding period Y ≥ 1 year, the redemption fee rate is 0.00%. The management fee rate is 0.50%; the custody fee rate is 0.10%. For Gold ETF Feeder C (000217), the subscription fee rate is 0.00%. For redemption, if the holding period Y < 7 days, the redemption fee rate is 1.50%; if the holding period is 7 days ≤ Y < 30 days, the redemption fee rate is 0.10%; if the holding period Y ≥ 30 days, the redemption fee rate is 0.00%. The management fee rate is 0.50%; the custody fee rate is 0.10%; the sales service fee is 0.35%. For Gold ETF Feeder I (022653), the subscription fee rate is 0.00%. For redemption, if the holding period Y < 7 days, the redemption fee rate is 1.50%; if the holding period Y ≥ 7 days, the redemption fee rate is 0.00%. The management fee rate is 0.50%; the custody fee rate is 0.10%; the sales service fee is 0.10%.
Risk disclosure: Investors are kindly reminded to pay attention to the specific risks of investing in gold-themed funds, such as the risk of gold market fluctuations, the risk that the fund portfolio return deviates from the return of domestic spot gold prices, and the investment risk of the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold market, among other major risks. The Gold Stock ETF is an equity fund and mainly invests in constituent stocks of the underlying index and alternative constituent stocks, and has risk-return characteristics similar to those of the underlying index. The Gold Stock ETF may invest in stocks under the Stock Connect, and will face foreign exchange risk and specific risks arising from differences in the investment environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Stock Connect mechanism. The fund management company does not guarantee that the above funds will necessarily be profitable, nor does it guarantee minimum returns. Past performance of a fund cannot predict future returns. The operation period of funds in China is relatively short and cannot reflect all stages of stock market development. Markets carry risks, investment requires caution, and risks are borne by the investor. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract and the Prospectus, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund product, and, on the basis of understanding the product and listening to the suitability opinions of the sales institution, make independent decisions on fund investment according to their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and investment objectives, and choose suitable fund products.
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