Apple Market Perspective Market News and Key Data On the futures front, the Apple 2605 contract closed at 9,485 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +105 yuan/ton or +1.12% from the previous day. On the spot market, the price for 80# grade 1-2 late Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05-1485, a change of -105 from the prior day. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late Fuji apples was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged, with a spot basis of AP05-1085, also down 105.
Recent market information indicates that trading activity in production areas has slightly decreased compared to the earlier period, with prices primarily stable. Merchants are currently shipping pre-packaged goods, leading to a slight acceleration in overall packaging and transportation. However, the transaction volume for farmers' general-grade goods in main production areas remains modest, with higher-grade defective and third-grade fruits constituting the bulk of sales. Notably, the urgency among some farmers to sell has intensified. In Shaanxi, farmer transactions are concentrated on a small volume of both high and low-quality goods, while merchants continue to focus on shipping their own inventories. In Gansu's Jingning and Zhuanglang counties, shipments are dominated by merchants packing their own supplies, though trading conditions have improved in Qingyang with decent sales. Shandong's production areas report average transaction volumes, centered mainly on gift box adjustments and limited outbound shipments of 75# and third-grade fruits. Prices in Qixia range from 3.2-4.5 yuan/jin for 80# grade 1-2 red-striped farmer goods to approximately 2.5-3.0 yuan/jin for 80# general-grade goods. In Shaanxi's Luochuan, farmer general-grade outbound prices are 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin, with semi-premium goods at 4.0-4.3 yuan/jin. Gansu's Jingning offers semi-premium farmer goods at 5-6 yuan/jin and general-quality goods at varying prices of 3.7-5.0 yuan/jin. The pre-holiday stocking atmosphere in production areas is generally tepid, with merchants preferring to pack and ship their own inventories. Farmer transactions are polarized, leaving general-grade goods with limited uptake. Meanwhile, arrivals at sales region markets have increased, and gift box sales are gradually progressing. Yet, apple sales are sluggish, significantly impacted by competing fruits. Short-term forecasts suggest a slight increase in sales volume due to holiday stocking, but prices are expected to remain stable with a weak bias.
Market Analysis Apple futures prices edged up yesterday as pre-Spring Festival stocking commenced, driving a notable surge in market demand and significantly boosting trading activity. From a circulation standpoint, pre-holiday procurement demand is accelerating, leading to an overall faster sales pace, although some distributors continue to exert price pressure on the production end. Current prices remain relatively high compared to substitutes like satsuma oranges and cherries; however, prices for high-quality supplies stay firm. Subsequent focus should be on the actual consumption performance in the terminal market. In January 2026, the apple market displayed a divergent character: production areas experienced stocking-driven shipments while sales regions struggled with weak demand absorption. The combination of old and new inventories, despite an accelerated destocking pace, remains elevated. Spring Festival preparations have accelerated late Fuji shipments compared to the previous month, but they lag behind the same period last year. Price polarization is pronounced, with premium goods maintaining firm prices due to scarcity, while farmers' general-grade goods are widely discounted due to urgent sales mentalities. Shipments are light in Shandong and Shaanxi, whereas farmer transactions in Gansu are relatively concentrated. Daily morning truck arrivals at Guangdong's three core markets have decreased month-on-month, with overall sluggish sales throughout the month exacerbating intermediate warehouse backlogs. Although end-of-month stocking spurred a rebound in arrivals, insufficient terminal digestion, coupled with price impacts from substitutes like satsuma oranges and cherries, has resulted in a lackluster peak season performance.
Strategy Neutral.
Risk Spring Festival sales and stocking progress, demand for substitute fruits, trading atmosphere in sales regions.
Red Date Market Perspective Market News and Key Data On the futures front, the Red Date 2605 contract closed at 8,920 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +100 yuan/ton or +1.13% from the previous day. On the spot market, the price for Grade 1 gray dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a spot basis of CJ05-920, down 100 from the prior day.
Recent market information indicates that the acquisition price range for the 2025 season Xinjiang gray dates is referenced at 5.00-6.50 yuan/kg. Specifically, mainstream prices for general-grade goods are 5.00-5.30 yuan/kg in the Aksu region, 5.20-5.80 yuan/kg in the Aral region, 6.20-6.40 yuan/kg in Kashgar regimental farms, and 6.00-6.30 yuan/kg in the Maigaiti region. Raw material procurement in production areas is priced based on quality, adhering to the principle of premium quality commanding premium prices. On February 2nd, five truckloads arrived at the parking area of Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, with special-grade arrivals referenced at 8.00 yuan/kg, albeit of average quality. Downstream procurement is need-based, and with limited time before the holiday, small and medium-sized enterprises are actively selling their self-procured supplies. Seven truckloads arrived at Guangdong's Ruyifang market, with prices holding steady. Downstream purchasing is need-based with fair trade, and the market holiday period is set from the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month. According to merchant feedback, logistics will gradually halt between the 15th and 23rd days of the twelfth lunar month, leaving limited time for trading before the holiday. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
Market Analysis Red date futures prices moved sideways yesterday. Although the inventory destocking pace has recently accelerated, the overlap of old and new supplies keeps market availability ample, sustaining price pressure. The entry of procurement merchants has somewhat alleviated the inventory outflow pressure. With the Spring Festival approaching, terminal consumption has not yet shown significant growth. Subsequent attention should focus on the actual sales performance in consumption regions during the holiday period and changes in festive consumption sentiment. Acquisition in production areas has concluded. The 2025 red date market experienced a production reduction, yet combined inventories and insufficient consumption continue to pressure prices. While pre-holiday stocking aids destocking, it is unlikely to alter the overall ample supply格局. Arrivals in sales regions have increased month-on-month, but actual sales fall short of expectations, with downstream merchants purchasing cautiously amid weak demand. Concurrently, substitutes like satsuma oranges and nuts are capturing market share, continually squeezing the downstream sales space for red dates. The next 20 days represent a critical stocking period. A significant boost in sales region volume could alleviate inventory pressure and provide short-term price support; otherwise, pressure will further transmit post-holiday.
Strategy Neutral.
Risk Supply pressure from old and new inventories, pre-holiday stocking progress, weather changes.
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