A data dispute is erupting between the US Energy Secretary and Wall Street analysts over the volume of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, with estimates differing by nearly double, creating information chaos in the global oil market. Analysts suggest this conflict is not just about numbers but directly impacts market assessments of global supply gaps and whether oil prices can remain stable at current levels.
On August 17, CNN reported that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly stated last week that the seven-day average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to 9 million barrels. He claimed that on August 8, the total daily outflow from the Arabian Gulf exceeded 20 million barrels, matching pre-war levels. Wright emphasized that the US military is conducting escort operations in the strait and that the Energy Department has access to the "best available data." However, data from third-party vessel tracking agencies, including Kpler and Windward Intelligence, shows that tankers currently pass through the strait with an average daily volume of only about 4 million barrels. Adding pipeline bypass routes, which handle about 7 million barrels, total outflows are around 11 million to 12 million barrels, far below the Energy Department's claims.
The impact of this data gap cannot be ignored. Global crude oil inventories have fallen by 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion barrels since the start of the conflict, with the market in a persistent supply deficit. If the Energy Department's data is accurate, market concerns about supply shortages may be overestimated. If the tracking data is more precise, the "tipping point" for global inventory depletion could arrive much faster than markets expect.
Data Gap: 9 Million Barrels vs. 4 Million Barrels
At the heart of the dispute is the vast discrepancy between the two data systems.
Wright's cited 9 million barrels per day comes from the US military's real-time monitoring of transiting vessels in the strait. An Energy Department spokesperson stated, "In coordination with the US military, the Energy Department maintains the best available data on crude oil and petroleum product outflows from the Arabian Gulf."
In contrast, data from Kpler, which Wall Street analysts have long relied on, paints a starkly different picture. Kpler operates 13,000 proprietary receivers across 190 countries, tracks 350,000 vessels, updates positions every five minutes, and runs a low-Earth orbit satellite network. Matt Smith, the firm's director of commodity research, stated bluntly, "The gap between what we observe and the figures he cites is irreconcilable."
On the day Wright claimed a single-day outflow of over 20 million barrels on August 8, data from both Kpler and Windward Intelligence showed that only about five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, daily transits exceeded 100 ships. "With that number of vessels, it's simply impossible to carry that volume of oil," an analyst noted.
Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, remarked, "It's becoming increasingly difficult to determine how much oil is actually leaving the Gulf. Conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials are muddying the waters."
Shadow Fleet: The Data Blind Spot May Be Larger Than Expected
While tracking firms stand by their data, analysts acknowledge that the current market information picture may involve significant blind spots.
In recent weeks, Iranian attacks on transiting vessels have escalated markedly, and its Houthi allies in the Red Sea have become more aggressive. This has forced an increasing number of oil tankers to do everything possible to hide their positions and cargo information when passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait to avoid attacks.
Kpler data shows that in recent weeks, about half of the transit flows it tracks through the Strait of Hormuz were "shadow transits"鈥攃overt voyages with transponders switched off. A month ago, this ratio was only about one-eighth.
Windward Intelligence also uses satellite imagery and artificial intelligence to track vessels with disabled transponders, but the Energy Department believes that a significant number of ships remain undetected.
Hussain argues that when these slow-moving tankers leave dangerous areas and reactivate their transponders, the market may realize that the amount of oil leaving the region has been far higher than previously estimated. This suggests that current supply shortage assessments may be overestimated.
Wall Street: From Skepticism to 'Trust but Verify'
In this data dispute, Wall Street's stance is undergoing a subtle shift.
Previously, analysts were generally cautious about the Trump administration's statements. Trump repeatedly claimed US control over the Strait of Hormuz and frequently hinted at an imminent deal with Iran. Wright also often stated that the US was ensuring ample oil supply. These statements were seen by the market as "verbal intervention" to lower oil prices and were not incorporated into mainstream analytical frameworks.
However, this attitude is softening. In June, Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities strategy at JPMorgan, noted that relatively low oil prices prompted her to reassess the actual volume of Persian Gulf oil outflows. She acknowledged the possibility of massive, unaccounted "secret" oil flowing out via tankers with disabled transponders. JPMorgan lists Kpler's shipping data as one of several sources for its supply-demand estimates.
Dan Pickering, founder and CIO of Pickering Energy Partners, stated he is open to the Energy Department's numbers. "The US is helping a significant amount of oil pass through the strait, and Iran isn't intercepting every ship," he said. "In an environment where a government has built up a lot of skepticism, a 'trust but verify' approach is probably the best you can do. He could, of course, be right."
Inventory Tipping Point: The Real Market Risk
Regardless of how the data dispute is ultimately resolved, analysts point out that the precise flow volume of the Strait of Hormuz has a less direct impact on oil prices than its long-term significance for market stability.
Since the conflict began, global crude oil inventories have declined by 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion barrels, depending on the estimation system used. The massive stockpiles accumulated before the war have, to some extent, cushioned the impact of the sudden supply drop, preventing a broader market crisis.
Currently, the oil market remains in a persistent supply deficit. The more oil that flows out of the strait, the longer the market can delay the "tipping point" of inventory depletion鈥攖he moment when reserves are insufficient to meet global demand.
"The market cannot sustain itself indefinitely by drawing down inventories," Pickering warned. "Sooner or later, reserves will run dry."
This means that if the tracking agencies' data is closer to reality, the supply expectations implied by current oil prices may be overly optimistic, and the market faces downside risks far more severe than prices reflect.
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