Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that the current strong El Ni帽o phenomenon could pose a "substantial risk" to U.S. inflation in 2027.
The study estimates that the current El Ni帽o may have already pushed the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price level up by about 0.3 percentage points between April and July 2026. The researchers wrote: "We estimate that the current climate event may have already raised the overall price level by about 0.3 percentage points during April-July of this year." This initial impact is expected to gradually fade by the end of 2026. However, if El Ni帽o transitions to La Ni帽a in 2027 鈥?a reverse climate pattern characterized by stronger Pacific trade winds and cooler coastal waters 鈥?the 2027 PCE inflation rate could rise by an additional 1 percentage point as a result.
Unlike inflation, El Ni帽o's impact on the labor market shows a clear lag. The study found that total nonfarm payrolls are typically not significantly affected in the first year of an El Ni帽o event, but show considerable expansion in the second year, with the unemployment rate declining accordingly. The researchers believe that the expectation of employment recovery in 2027 is based on relatively consistent patterns across historical El Ni帽o cycles, and is more reliable than inflation forecasts 鈥?which are highly sensitive to whether La Ni帽a follows.
The study also notes that El Ni帽o's impact on prices precedes its impact on employment. Historically, this climate phenomenon pushes up core services prices and food prices, thereby putting substantial pressure on consumers' purchasing power. Short-term price increases are mainly driven by higher energy, food, and core services prices, while the following year's price increases mainly come from food and core services prices.
The mechanism driving employment recovery lies in the indirect boost that improved climate conditions provide to specific industries: a warmer winter helps reduce heating demand and improves productivity in construction and agriculture, although increased precipitation may disrupt construction or cause flooding in certain areas.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted in October 2026 that the current El Ni帽o phenomenon could be the strongest on record, causing droughts in some regions and floods in others, and leading to higher temperatures in many parts of the world. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that the current El Ni帽o has been classified as "very strong."
The San Francisco Fed's historical data sample since the 1950s covers only 22 El Ni帽o events, of which only 4 reached "very strong" levels, and the current intensity is expected to exceed any in the historical data. The limited sample size and the current event exceeding historical peaks mean that the model's forecast range carries considerable uncertainty. The authors explicitly state that the above conclusions "are not predictions, but point to significant upside risks to inflation next year."
The researchers also mention that although improved weather forecast accuracy allows businesses, households, and policymakers to prepare more fully in advance than in the past, as global market integration deepens, the U.S. economy may be more vulnerable to overseas shocks than ever before. Recent developments, such as disruptions in the fertilizer market, supply chain interruptions in the energy market, and record-breaking extreme weather events, could all overlap with this El Ni帽o phenomenon and produce unpredictable effects.
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