Oil stocks advanced collectively. At the time of writing, China Oilfield Services (02883) rose 5.55% to HK$9.31; PetroChina (00857) gained 3.38% to HK$11; CNOOC (00883) increased 2.6% to HK$27.58; and SINOPEC CORP (00386) climbed 1.33% to HK$4.56.
According to market reports, three vessels were intercepted by Iran in the Persian Gulf and nearby waters on Wednesday. Concurrently, the U.S. military stated that it had ordered 31 ships to turn around or return to port since the blockade began. Additionally, it is reported that the U.S. military would require approximately six months to complete mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments have cast further doubt on the reopening of the strait, dampening hopes for the resumption of traffic through this critical shipping lane.
Barclays noted that the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is tightening supply in the physical energy market, and the market has not yet fully priced in the actual impact of the current supply disruptions. The bank believes that the current pricing of U.S. oil stocks suggests the market has factored in a long-term oil price of $60 to $65 per barrel, an expectation it views as overly optimistic. Barclays anticipates oil prices will rise in the coming months.
CITIC Futures analysis indicates that geopolitical risks and tight supply-demand fundamentals will continue to support oil prices, with crude prices expected to remain strong in the near term.
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