Abstract
Ross Stores, Inc. is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes (Post Market) on March 03, 2026; this preview outlines consensus revenue and EPS expectations, margin context from the prior quarter, key segment dynamics, near-term drivers that could move the stock, and how the majority of analysts currently frame the setup.Market Forecast
Consensus forecasts for the current quarter point to revenue of $6.40 billion, up approximately 7.38% year over year, with adjusted EPS near $1.89, implying year-over-year growth of about 13.92%. EBIT is projected around $767.22 million, a year-over-year increase of roughly 12.52%; margin guidance for the quarter was not indicated in the dataset, so gross margin and net margin forecasts are omitted.Management’s core merchandising mix continues to emphasize value across women’s apparel and home-related categories, with an operating focus on inventory flow, disciplined markdowns, and expense control to support earnings leverage. The most promising category based on recent contribution remains home décor, bed and bath, which generated $1.40 billion in last quarter revenue; year-over-year growth specifics for categories were not provided in the available data.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Ross Stores, Inc. delivered revenue of $5.60 billion (up 10.44% year over year), a gross profit margin of 34.19%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $512.00 million, a net profit margin of 9.14%, and adjusted EPS of $1.58 (up 6.76% year over year). Operating performance improved as EBIT rose to $648.50 million, reflecting a 7.33% year-over-year increase, supported by tighter cost discipline and better operating leverage.Within the company’s category mix, home décor, bed and bath led with $1.40 billion in revenue, women’s contributed $1.29 billion, men’s contributed $896.15 million, accessories/lingerie/fine jewelry/cosmetics contributed $784.13 million, shoes contributed $728.12 million, and children’s contributed $504.09 million; category-level year-over-year comparisons were not available in the dataset.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Merchandising and Store Productivity
The near-term setup centers on how effectively Ross Stores, Inc. converts anticipated traffic into sales while protecting merchandise margin. The current-quarter revenue estimate of $6.40 billion suggests healthy top-line momentum into the post-holiday period, while the implied adjusted EPS of about $1.89 indicates stronger earnings leverage than revenue growth alone would imply. This earnings step-up is consistent with improved expense efficiency and tightly managed markdowns, both critical to preserving gross profit dollars as the company cycles holiday promotions and transitions assortments toward spring.A key determinant this quarter is inventory discipline—ensuring that fresh receipts turn quickly and that packaway inventories are released at favorable margins. Effective balancing of value and newness can support average unit retail without eroding conversion, enabling better mix and lower clearance exposure. If receipts and flow stay aligned with demand, the company can hold or expand merchandise margin and manage shrink and supply chain costs within plan, allowing SG&A leverage to carry more of the EPS growth.
From an operating-expense standpoint, two factors will be watched closely: store payroll and freight/distribution. Seasonal normalization of hours and logistics volumes following the holidays can drive sequential structure benefits, while disciplined labor scheduling can maintain in-store service levels without overspending. On the P&L, even modest gross margin stability combined with controlled SG&A can produce double-digit growth in EBIT, in line with the 12.52% forecasted increase, thereby reinforcing the pathway to the projected 13.92% EPS growth.
Home Décor, Bed and Bath: The Category with the Clearest Upside
Home décor, bed and bath stood as the largest revenue-contributing category last quarter at $1.40 billion, and its scale gives it outsized influence on consolidated margin and earnings power this quarter. The category’s breadth—from bed/bath basics to decorative accents—offers multiple levers to curate compelling value, and it can help lift basket sizes when paired with adjacent offerings. Maintaining an assortment that emphasizes both quality and price appeal should sustain conversion among value-seeking customers, particularly when cross-merchandised with seasonal and fashion-forward items.From a profitability standpoint, the category’s dynamics typically allow for attractive merchandise margins when buying is opportunistic and turnover is efficient. Seasonal transitions are an opportunity to refresh end-caps and front-of-store displays with high-velocity items that can draw traffic and anchor trips. If the company keeps vendor relationships robust and maintains disciplined purchasing—prioritizing receipt timing that aligns with store flow—the category should continue to deliver solid gross dollars with manageable clearance risk, reinforcing the forecasted EBIT increase this quarter.
Operational execution remains pivotal. Rapid allocation and replenishment, agile pricing, and carefully timed markdowns will determine whether this category’s sales transition from the holiday season into spring with minimal channel friction. Because home items often complement apparel purchases, cohesive in-store presentation and coordination through store teams can help sustain ticket, thereby augmenting the overall margin mix without requiring additional promotional intensity.
What Could Move the Stock Around the Print
The three-line items most likely to influence the share price around results are comparable sales, gross margin trajectory, and operating expense leverage. Even small deviations in comp sales versus internal plans can have outsized effects on gross dollars when layered on a $6.40 billion revenue base. If traffic and conversion track favorably, merchandise margin preservation becomes easier; conversely, if demand proves choppier, incremental markdowns or clearance activity could pressure the gross line, offsetting revenue gains.Gross margin holds the key to upside relative to the current consensus. Limited promotional cadence, balanced assortments, and disciplined packaway utilization all support merchandise margin, while shrink and logistics costs need to remain within planned ranges to keep the gross line stable. The company’s ability to manage end-of-season inventory cleanly—exiting winter goods without heavy clearance—will be closely scrutinized, as this sets the stage for spring full-price sell-through. Strong control here can allow operating leverage to translate into EBIT and EPS performance consistent with the forecasted 12.52% and 13.92% growth rates, respectively.
Finally, SG&A control, buybacks, and any comments on the cadence of new store openings will shape how investors underwrite the coming quarters. If expense trends show tighter-than-anticipated discipline and the share count drifts lower due to repurchases, the company could deliver EPS above the modeled $1.89 even on in-line revenue. Conversely, if expenses or one-time costs run hotter than expected, leverage could be muted, leaving EPS closer to the low end of internal scenarios despite the 7.38% revenue growth baseline.
Analyst Opinions
Among research updates published between January 01, 2026 and February 24, 2026, the majority stance is bullish. In this window, at least five well-known institutions reaffirmed or raised constructive views, while neutral opinions were fewer and there were no identifiable bearish (Sell/Underweight) calls. The split is therefore approximately bullish 5 vs bearish 0, with a small number of neutral updates in the minority.JPMorgan recently lifted its price target to $232 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing confidence in the company’s near-term earnings path and merchandising execution. Gordon Haskett raised its target to as high as $235 alongside a Buy rating, highlighting the supportive setup for profit growth and the operational discipline that has preserved margin even as the sales base expands. Citigroup maintained a Buy rating while increasing its price objective to $224, emphasizing that the expected acceleration in EPS growth relative to revenue growth suggests effective cost and inventory management. Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy rating with a $205 target and Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a $210 target, both pointing to the company’s consistency in curating value at scale and the potential for additional upside if margin flow-through meets or beats current assumptions. UBS maintained a Neutral stance with target adjustments to $199 and $181 in separate updates during the period; these serve as counterpoints but are not the majority view.
The bullish case coalesces around several fact-based pillars tied directly to the current-quarter numbers. First, the projected revenue of $6.40 billion, up 7.38% year over year, is accompanied by a forecast for adjusted EPS growth of 13.92%, implying positive operating leverage. That gap between sales and earnings trajectories typically requires firm gross margin management and disciplined SG&A, both areas where the company showed improvement last quarter as EBIT grew 7.33% to $648.50 million. Second, the category mix appears supportive: the home décor, bed and bath category’s $1.40 billion contribution, paired with stronger women’s, men’s, and accessories lines, indicates that a wide base of demand can underwrite top-line stability while giving management options to optimize margin through mix.
Third, analysts are keying in on the translation of these dynamics into this quarter’s EBIT, which is projected at $767.22 million, up 12.52% year over year. If gross profit dollars hold close to plan and SG&A growth remains controlled, the path to this level of EBIT appears attainable. Further, share count trends can provide an incremental tailwind to EPS even if revenue lands in line. The combination of controlled markdowns, balanced inventory flow, and measured expense growth increases the probability that EPS falls at or above $1.89, which is consistent with the positive target revisions from JPMorgan, Gordon Haskett, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies during the January–February 2026 period.
Looking beyond the headline figures, bullish institutions also point to the company’s demonstrated capacity to manage seasonal transitions without sacrificing margin quality. This capability is notable following the prior quarter’s 34.19% gross margin and 9.14% net margin, suggesting a disciplined approach to merchandise planning and store execution. If those attributes persist through the quarter now under review, the probability of sustained EBIT and EPS growth improves, reinforcing recent target hikes.
In sum, the majority of analysts preview the setup as favorable: revenue growth in the high single digits year over year, supported by mix and disciplined inventory, and EPS expanding at a faster clip due to controlled markdowns and SG&A leverage. Should results land near or above these forecasts, the bullish cohort’s rationale—reflected in recent price target increases—would remain intact.
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