The US Dollar Index edged higher and held near a 13-month high during Asian trading hours on Friday, June 26, currently trading around 101.50.
In a media interview on Thursday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that inflation remains the Fed's primary concern, warning that despite recent signs of improvement, core price pressures are still moving in the wrong direction.
This stance aligns with the cautious approach on the interest rate path signaled by Fed Chair Waller, reinforcing the central bank's message that it will not adjust policy lightly until the data is clear.
Inflation Remains the Core Issue: Goolsbee's Clear Stance
Goolsbee stated directly in the interview, "If we look at core inflation, it remains well above target, and the direction of the trend is wrong. We need to see improvement."
He added that while there have been some "bright spots," policymakers still have more work to do before inflation can be considered under control. This comment highlights the widespread concern within the Fed regarding the stickiness of inflation.
Despite the recent drop in oil prices to pre-conflict levels following a temporary US-Iran peace agreement, Goolsbee emphasized that service inflation remains high, and a slowdown in wage growth "does not guarantee that inflation will come down."
Services Inflation: Insufficient Progress, Not Time to Relax
Goolsbee specifically pointed to the trajectory of services inflation. He acknowledged some "small improvements" in services inflation, noting it as an indicator requiring continued monitoring. "You have seen service inflation improve a little bit. I've been emphasizing that's what we want to see," he said.
However, he simultaneously stressed that progress remains insufficient and it is far from time to relax vigilance.
Goolsbee concluded, "Between the Fed's dual mandate—inflation and employment—inflation is clearly the problem." This statement clearly indicates that, at this stage, controlling inflation takes clear priority over supporting employment.
Interest Rate Path: No Forward Guidance, Continuing Waller's Cautious Style
Despite his hawkish assessment of inflation, Goolsbee refused to provide specific guidance on the next policy steps. He declined to speculate on whether the Fed should raise rates or hold them steady, agreeing with Fed Chair Waller's approach of avoiding unnecessary market speculation about the future rate path.
This position continues the signals Waller has recently conveyed publicly: the central bank will not easily reveal its policy direction until the data is clear. Goolsbee's remarks reinforce the consensus within the Fed—policymakers are firmly focused on restoring price stability, with future decisions entirely dependent on subsequent economic data.
On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index maintains a strong overall bullish trend. The price has continued a volatile upward move from the phase low of 97.62, reaching a new phase high of 101.80. The short-term MA20, medium-term MA50, MA100, and long-term MA200 moving averages are all diverging upward synchronously, forming multi-layered step-like support. Each pullback has been quickly recovered by relying on the short-term moving average, with lows continuously rising, indicating a complete and intact upward structure.
In terms of indicators, the MACD remains in a bullish state, with the DIFF line consistently running above the DEA line, and the red energy bars showing stable expansion with no significant decay in bullish momentum. The RSI reading is at 72.89, approaching the 80 overbought threshold, suggesting a short-term need for a technical pullback to consolidate strength, with no topping divergence reversal signal yet appearing.
As of 11:36 Beijing time on June 26, the US Dollar Index was reported at 101.47.
Comments