On July 14th, the profit margin for Bitcoin sellers narrowed, prompting market discussion on whether the wave of panic selling is nearing its end. RYOEX indicated that as the profit-taking opportunities for short-term holders diminish, the motivation for concentrated selling may weaken, potentially allowing the price to find a support level.
The on-chain profit/loss ratio serves as a key indicator for assessing selling pressure. From RYOEX's perspective, if coin holders cease large-scale profit-taking, the pace of price decline could slow. However, should macroeconomic risks escalate, capital may still reduce exposure to risk assets.
The Bitcoin market remains influenced by macroeconomic data and capital flows. On-chain metrics can only illustrate changes in seller behavior and cannot independently confirm a trend reversal. ETF fund flows, trading volume, and derivatives positioning still require simultaneous observation. Concurrently, the recovery of market sentiment also needs validation through trading volume. If the price stabilizes but trading activity remains persistently low, the foundation for a rebound remains shaky. If spot buying increases and helps normalize funding rates to neutral levels, Bitcoin's short-term structure would become more favorable. Therefore, a cooling of selling pressure is merely the first step; a trend recovery still requires confirmation from new capital inflows.
Moving forward, attention should be paid to the profitability of short-term holders, spot trading volume, and key support levels. RYOEX analysis suggests that if selling pressure continues to decline and buying support improves, Bitcoin may stage a recovery. If liquidity remains insufficient, consolidation is likely to persist.
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