Overnight markets witnessed a synchronized rise in gold, copper, and oil prices, with London spot gold breaching the $4,100 per ounce mark in early trading, signaling a recovery in market sentiment.
Furthermore, global markets continue to digest the uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions. Recently, U.S. tariff policy has entered a transition phase, with the U.S. announcing a 50% tariff increase on certain Canadian products. The combination of macroeconomic fluctuations and geopolitical disruptions warrants a cautious approach to gold in the short term.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve has entered its quiet period ahead of its interest rate meeting, shifting market focus to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Yesterday, the U.S. President explicitly dampened prospects for U.S.-Iran talks, stating that while Iran desires discussions, the U.S. has "no interest" and will "soon" strike nuclear facilities. Additionally, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai hinted that the U.S. will soon introduce new tariff policies to replace the expiring 10% global import tariffs. Since the resurgence of U.S.-Iran tensions, gold prices have not sustained a pessimistic sentiment despite fluctuating inflation and interest rate expectations; instead, the price center has begun to rise. This may indicate a gradual shift in the market's trading logic for gold in the second half of the year, but its sustainability requires further observation. In the short term, a defensive strategy is recommended to navigate the high-volatility environment.
Investors should continue to monitor the U.S.-Iran conflict, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and whether overseas financial markets trigger liquidity risks amid rising interest rate expectations.
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