Shares of Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND), a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories, surged 5.7% on November 4th, 2024. This spike occurred after investment firm Giverny Capital Asset Management disclosed in its Q3 investor letter that it had sold its remaining stake in the company due to concerns about weak housing turnover and a stretched valuation.
According to Giverny's letter, while the firm is a "fan" of Floor & Decor's business model, most customers install new flooring when purchasing a home. With housing turnover remaining sluggish, and Floor & Decor's stock pricing in expectations for a strong housing recovery, Giverny believed there were better investment opportunities elsewhere and exited its position in July 2024.
While the news from Giverny highlights valid concerns about Floor & Decor's near-term growth prospects in the face of housing market weakness, the sharp stock jump suggests investors may have been overly pessimistic. The disclosure of a major institutional investor selling its stake appears to have sparked a relief rally as the negative news was likely already priced in to some degree. Overall, I would assign an explanation score of 85, as the Giverny letter provides a plausible catalyst for the surge but does not definitively explain such a large move in a single day.
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