CICC Maintains 'Outperform' on MGM China (02282) with HK$13.80 Target

Stock News07-31

CICC released a research report maintaining its EBITDA forecasts for MGM CHINA (02282) for 2026 and 2027. The company's current stock price trades at 6 times 2026e and 5 times 2027e EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an 'Outperform' rating and a target price of HK$13.80, which corresponds to 8 times 2026e and 7 times 2027e EV/EBITDA, indicating a 25% upside potential from the current share price.

CICC's key views are as follows: MGM CHINA reported its 2Q26 results, which exceeded the firm's expectations. Net revenue was HK$8.625 billion, flat year-on-year and down 2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 156% of 2Q19 levels. Adjusted EBITDA was HK$2.327 billion, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 5% sequential decline, recovering to 160% of 2Q19 levels. This was broadly in line with the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of HK$2.386 billion and better than CICC's estimate of HK$2.251 billion. The firm believes MGM CHINA's performance was primarily driven by an increase in gross gaming revenue market share (16.4% in 2Q26, compared to 15.5% in 1Q26), especially at MGM COTAI (10.1% in 2Q26, compared to 9.3% in 1Q26).

Regarding development trends, business volumes in April and May 2026 were stable, but the 2026 FIFA World Cup negatively impacted volumes in June and July, which the firm expects to be a temporary disruption. Management noted that business volumes rebounded quickly after the end of the World Cup in late July 2026, exceeding 1Q26 levels. This trend continues, and the company is expected to maintain its market share in the mid-teens range. Competition in the Macau market is always intense, and MGM CHINA's strategy focuses on differentiation through product quality, service, and product mix, rather than relying on rebates or commissions. The firm believes this strategy, combined with proactive revenue management of gaming tables and slot machine deployment, helps support a stable and strong EBITDA margin. The firm also views management's ability to quickly and effectively respond to market changes in service and product offerings as a long-term structural advantage for MGM CHINA.

Risk warnings include growth slower than expected and market share loss due to intensifying industry competition.

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