May 19th: In the previous trading session on Monday (May 18th), international gold prices touched a low and then recovered to close higher. Initially, due to former U.S. President Trump's military threats towards Iran and discussions between the U.S. and Israel about the possibility of resuming military action against Iran, oil prices surged, pressuring gold to open lower and decline. However, subsequent buying support at lower levels, coupled with Trump's later statement about canceling a planned strike on Iran scheduled for Tuesday, caused market factors to reverse again, boosting gold prices to rebound from their lows.
The resulting price pattern suggests a short-term bias towards a halt in the decline and a potential recovery. However, breaking through the resistance of the 60-day or 100-day moving averages is still necessary to further open upside space; otherwise, prices may face another corrective decline.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened slightly lower in the Asian session at $4,534.75 per ounce. It initially moved lower, reaching the intraday low of $4,480.62 around 8:30 AM local time, then rebounded from that low. The price maintained an overall oscillating recovery pattern throughout the day, extending into the early U.S. session where it recorded the intraday high of $4,583.83. It subsequently encountered resistance and pulled back, but regained upward momentum towards the session's close, ultimately settling at $4,565.78. The daily trading range was $103.21. Compared to the opening price, it closed up $31.03, a gain of 0.88%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (May 19th): International gold opened with continued upward momentum from the previous day's recovery, initially showing strength. A weaker U.S. dollar index in the early session provided support. Trump's cancellation of the planned strike on Iran temporarily reduced bearish pressure on the gold market.
Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury Secretary's announcement of another 30-day extension for the sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil further diminished crude oil-related risks, also easing some inflationary pressures, which lent some attractiveness to gold.
In the short term, barring the re-emergence of significant risk news concerning U.S.-Iran relations, gold prices are expected to maintain their rebound and consolidation pattern, while continuing to monitor resistance at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages.
During the day, attention can be paid to the U.S. April Pending Home Sales Index month-over-month data. Market expectations lean towards being favorable for gold prices. Therefore, for intraday trading strategies, a focus on continued bullish rebound remains appropriate, with attention on resistance targets such as the Bollinger Band midline and the 30-day moving average.
From a technical perspective: On the monthly chart, gold prices from April to the current period in May have been oscillating continuously below the 5-month and 10-month moving averages, indicating a weak trend. The key focus is on subsequent developments to break this pattern. A rebound breaking above the 5-month moving average could significantly increase bullish momentum, potentially retesting the $5,200 level. Conversely, a break below the support of the 10-week moving average could lead to a renewed decline towards the $4,100 or even $3,800 mark.
On the weekly chart, gold has repeatedly faced resistance at the midline of the Bollinger Bands and has now fallen back below the 30-week moving average, increasing bearish pressure. Although currently in a recovery rebound, if it cannot break above the midline, there remains a possibility of another decline towards the $4,400 or $4,100 levels in the future.
On the daily chart, after encountering resistance near the 100-day moving average, the overall trend in recent periods has been a downward shift within a consolidation range. The current focus is on the descending trend channel originating from around $4,889. An upward breakout could target the $5,000 level. A downward break below the support of the 200-day moving average could lead to a test of the $4,000 level. Until such breaks occur, trading within the range is the primary approach.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are for reference only; specific entry and exit points should be confirmed via live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,560 or $4,520; Resistance levels to watch are around $4,630 or $4,670. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $77.50 or $76.50; Resistance levels to watch are around $80.70 or $81.90.
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