Recent statistical data reveals a landmark shift in financial market volatility dynamics: the volatility of gold, traditionally hailed as the "king of safe havens" and a stable asset, has now surpassed that of Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, long notorious for its wild price swings. This underscores that following an exceptionally fierce rally, gold's price fluctuations have become increasingly intense, reaching their most turbulent level in the past two decades. Concurrently, amid gold's sharp decline and heightened volatility, major Wall Street financial giants remain bullish on its long-term investment prospects, citing the backdrop of a depreciating US dollar, the disorderly expansion of developed market debt, and persistent geopolitical instability. Even as gold prices experienced their steepest single-day drop in 40 years last Friday, triggered by a "hawkish shock" following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, and continued to fall sharply on Monday—with spot gold prices declining nearly 10% at one point—JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America maintain that gold could surge to $6,000 by the end of 2026. According to the latest compiled institutional data, gold's "30-day volatility measure" has surged sharply to over 44%, marking the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis and exceeding Bitcoin's volatility measure of approximately 39%.
From another, more bullish perspective, soaring volatility in commodities is more commonly observed during historical bull market phases. This implies that gold's current volatility exceeding Bitcoin's reflects a deeper market dynamic: during periods of shifting macro risk appetite dominated by safe-haven logic, traditional safe assets (like gold) may reflect changes in macro risk expectations earlier and more intensely than comparable risk assets (like Bitcoin). The last occurrence of gold's volatility surpassing Bitcoin, an anomalous and extreme phenomenon, happened in May 2025, signaling a significant reversal. Gold is typically viewed as a far more stable store of value compared to cryptocurrencies, which are globally renowned for their susceptibility to speculative forces. Since Bitcoin's impactful debut 17 years ago, gold's volatility measure has only surpassed Bitcoin's on two previous occasions, excluding the current instance. The most recent occurrence was in May of last year, triggered by then-President Donald Trump's global tariff threats, which fueled sustained trade tensions and prompted a market-wide sell-off of virtually all tradable assets, causing sharp price declines across financial markets.
The surge in volatility follows gold's steepest multi-decade price decline, extending a dramatic reversal. Some commodity traders still contend that the rally since the start of the year had been excessively rapid and forceful. On Monday, gold prices fell by as much as 10% during Asian trading hours, dropping to around $4,400 per ounce, after having traded near an all-time high close to $5,600 just before Friday's historic sell-off. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and persistent sovereign debt pressures have recently driven the precious metal to repeatedly set new record highs, astonishing even seasoned market participants. The already heated rally accelerated further at the beginning of the year, as retail investors and some speculators poured into the gold market, driven by concerns over geopolitical risks, currency devaluation, and the independence of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Substantial buying from large speculators, particularly from China and the United States, further propelled prices higher.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, once dubbed a "new-era safe-haven asset" by some traders, has failed to benefit from these forces. Following weekend selling pressure, Bitcoin continued its downward trajectory on Monday, falling to a 10-month low. It has declined over 40% since October, even approaching its lowest levels since Donald Trump's return to the White House. On Monday, the leading cryptocurrency fell by up to 2.5%, dropping to $74,541, nearing the lows seen after the so-called "Liberation Day" tariff shock following Trump's return—specifically, the level of $74,425 touched on April 7, 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price had recovered somewhat, hovering above $76,000. Consequently, despite geopolitical pressures, a weak US dollar, and rare extreme volatility in the precious metal sector, Bitcoin has not attracted capital fleeing the gold sell-off, making gold the currently more turbulent trading market.
As Bitcoin retraces to the price zone seen after the previous "Liberation Day" tariff shock, cryptocurrency traders are growing increasingly concerned that the absence of cascading liquidations or systemic shocks suggests the selling pressure is shaped more by a lack of liquidity-driven buying, fading momentum, and weakening conviction, indicating the price decline could be more persistent. Is the arrival of the "6k Gold Era" merely a matter of time? Nevertheless, gold has maintained its status as the premier traditional safe-haven asset in financial markets. Over the past 12 months, despite last week's plunge, spot gold prices have risen approximately 66%, while Bitcoin has fallen significantly by 21%.
From Wall Street's latest outlook on gold, short-term selling pressure remains and volatility is still high, but the long-term bull market logic remains intact. According to top-tier Wall Street investment institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, gold's rally this year, which has repeatedly set new records and breached $5,000, is not over. They believe it could potentially surpass the epic $6,000 level in the future, entering the eagerly anticipated "6K Era" on Wall Street. Current market consensus suggests gold remains in a period of wide fluctuations in the short term, with buying sentiment cautious. However, as global competitive dynamics reach a critical juncture, long-term allocation demand for gold assets from global central banks and the foundational support provided by central bank funds will continue to act as a "ballast" for the gold bull market.
In the view of Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, the long-term thesis for gold has not reversed. Concerns about the sustainability of the massive interest-bearing debt in the US and other developed markets, alongside doubts about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy independence, are expected to continue driving both central banks and private investment sectors to increase their gold reserves. Media reports indicate that despite gold prices retreating over 20% from last week's record highs, buying enthusiasm among retail investors in Asia has intensified against the trend. A February 2nd report described crowded scenes at the gold trading lounge of UOB's headquarters in Singapore, with numerous investors queuing at counters to purchase physical gold, highlighting that retail investors are not panicking and selling but instead demonstrating significant "buy-the-dip" characteristics for physical bullion. UOB is the only financial institution in Singapore offering physical gold products to retail clients.
A team led by Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America—often dubbed "Wall Street's most accurate strategist"—released a report stating that short-term volatility does not alter the long-term logic. The macro drivers fueling the rise of gold and physical assets remain robust. Unless a "super-negative narrative" more destructive than the current macro storyline emerges, this gold bull market, driven by the US's massive debt system and currency devaluation, is unlikely to end abruptly. Hartnett and his team noted that the US dollar has effectively depreciated by 12% since Trump took office. The strategist pointed out that a weaker dollar is a key measure for revitalizing manufacturing in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, akin to the "Rust Belt." This is not merely an economic calculation but a necessity for Trump's political survival. Data clearly shows a strong negative correlation between Trump's approval ratings and the dollar's performance during his term—the weaker the dollar, the more stable his support. Therefore, Hartnett's team at Bank of America continues to believe gold could test $6,000 before 2026.
Another Wall Street giant, JPMorgan Chase, stated that the recent sharp declines in gold and silver were essentially a technical unwinding of overly crowded positions triggered by margin requirement hikes, rather than a fundamental reversal of the underlying logic. In a research report issued on Sunday, JPMorgan's strategists wrote that gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge, with physical demand from both central banks and retail investors remaining far stronger than anticipated. JPMorgan predicts that, driven by central bank purchases and investor demand, the gold price will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. Although the air gets thinner at higher price levels, the structural bull market is not facing imminent crash risk.
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