CICC has released a research report expressing strong confidence in JIAXIN INTL RES (03858), which focuses on operating the Bakuta Tungsten Mine in Kazakhstan. The firm initiated coverage on JIAXIN INTL RES with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HK$95.00, based on a P/E valuation method, corresponding to 2026-2027e P/E ratios of 22.6x and 14.8x. Notably, the analysis focuses not only on the company's production volume and tungsten prices but also expresses further optimism regarding its operational mechanisms and its broad development potential in the Central Asian region. CICC's primary views are as follows: The global tungsten supply-demand dynamic is expected to remain tight, with the price center likely to rise steadily. On the supply side, global tungsten supply is characterized by strong scarcity and high concentration, with China's tungsten production output long ranking first globally. Domestic supply faces contraction pressure due to declining ore grades and increasingly stringent standardized production requirements. The development progress of tungsten mines overseas is generally slow. CICC forecasts a 2023-2028 global primary tungsten supply CAGR of +2.4%. On the demand side, benefiting from emerging demands such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and AI PCBs, alongside large-scale infrastructure projects, domestic tungsten consumption is generally favorable. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts overseas, strategic stockpiling demand is expected to commence. CICC anticipates a 2023-2028 global primary tungsten consumption CAGR of +2.7%. The firm expects the global tungsten supply-demand relationship to be structurally tight over the long term, and combined with global tungsten inventories having been drawn down to low levels, the tungsten price center is poised for a sustained increase. Four core advantages are expected to position the company as a highly internationally competitive mining leader in Central Asia. First, superior resources: The Bakuta Tungsten Mine boasts large reserves, low costs, and excellent conditions for large-scale development. Second, a prime location: The Bakuta project has a superior and conveniently accessible location. Kazakhstan is rich in resources and offers a favorable business environment, and the company is poised to benefit from the China-Kazakhstan permanent comprehensive strategic partnership and support from the "Belt and Road" initiative. Third, an effective mechanism: The mixed-ownership structure and management team are expected to empower the company. Fourth, strong growth potential: The company possesses robust growth prospects in terms of capacity expansion, deep-processing development, and resource reserve increases. Furthermore, the company has the potential to become a leading non-ferrous company that develops resources in Central Asia and sells its products globally. For profit forecasts and valuation, CICC estimates the company's EPS for 2025-2027 will be HK$0.63, HK$4.18, and HK$6.56, respectively, representing a CAGR of 221.6%; net profit attributable to owners is forecasted at RMB 2.6 billion, RMB 17.2 billion, and RMB 26.3 billion, respectively. The current share price corresponds to 2026-2027e P/E ratios of 16.5x and 10.5x. The initiation of coverage comes with an "Outperform" rating and a HK$95 target price, implying 38% upside potential. Risks include production falling short of expectations; global tungsten supply exceeding forecasts; insufficient demand; and significant volatility in tungsten prices.
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