On August 5, any major breakthrough or setback in US-Iran diplomatic progress will quickly transmit from oil prices to gold prices, while employment data this week could emerge as the next critical catalyst. The current gold price rally is the result of a direct boost from weaker oil prices, lowered inflation premiums from easing geopolitical tensions, and falling US Treasury yields.
Conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials on whether negotiations are ongoing may reflect both sides' desire to preserve political flexibility—avoiding the appearance of making the first concession while leveraging intermediaries like Qatar and Oman to exchange terms and pave the way for future talks.
On the daily chart, gold has broken above the upper end of the triangular consolidation range and climbed above the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages, showing short-term signs of strengthening, though further confirmation is still needed. The 14-day RSI stands at 56, not far from the neutral zone.
On the 4-hour chart, gold has posted consecutive bullish candles, with a clear shift from weak to strong momentum. The RSI indicator is in the bullish zone at 72, not yet overbought, while the MACD red histogram continues to expand, suggesting further upside potential.
Overall, the recommended strategy for tonight's gold trading is to focus on buying on dips. Trading strategy—long positions: Enter long at 4136-4134, stop loss at 4119, target around 4188. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.
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