CATL (03750) fell more than 4% intraday, and as of press time was down 2.58% at HK$347.6, with turnover of HK$869 million.
On the news front, Morgan Stanley released a research report noting that CATL's third-quarter revenue rose 59% year on year, reflecting strong performance in both shipments and market share, but the product mix fluctuated more than expected, leading to an overstatement of profitability.
CATL's third-quarter unit net profit declined by about RMB29 per kilowatt-hour quarter on quarter. Morgan Stanley said this already takes into account factors including lithium inventory losses, foreign exchange losses, consumption tax, reduced VAT rebates, customer rebates and changes in product mix. After adding back one-off and reversible items, the third-quarter unit net profit performance remains resilient.
Morgan Stanley said it has cut its net profit forecast for CATL this year by 6% to RMB89.4 billion, and reduced its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 7% and 10% respectively. It said it remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, believing that the global electrification addressable market outside the United States could double in the next five years, the sodium battery product cycle is beginning to land, and the battery-swapping alliance is making good progress. However, it expects CATL's H-shares may remain volatile over the next three months, and the H/A premium could narrow further.
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