On the morning of April 10, Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network reported the following spot price movements: 1# copper was quoted at 98,450 yuan per ton, up 730 yuan, with a premium of 200 yuan per ton, increasing by 20 yuan. A00 aluminum ingot was priced at 24,540 yuan per ton, rising 140 yuan, while the discount was reported at 60 yuan. 0# zinc traded at 23,690 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, and 1# zinc was at 23,590 yuan per ton, also falling 40 yuan. 1# lead ingot dropped 25 yuan to 16,775 yuan per ton. 1# nickel declined 50 yuan to 135,400 yuan per ton, whereas 1# tin surged 6,000 yuan to 376,000 yuan per ton.
Global markets experienced a recovery following recent volatility. The U.S. March services PMI unexpectedly cooled to 54.0, indicating slower expansion momentum. However, the core PCE price index remained sticky at 3.0% year-on-year, constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy flexibility. This suggests that high interest rates may persist longer, though market fears of further tightening have temporarily eased.
Meanwhile, Middle East tensions have emerged as a major uncertainty. Former President Trump’s optimistic remarks on U.S.-Iran negotiations initially boosted risk appetite, causing the U.S. dollar to weaken. However, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon quickly reignited safe-haven demand. Concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept investors oscillating between greed and fear. For base metals, a weaker dollar is supportive, but demand-side uncertainties remain a concern.
Copper remains the strongest performer due to solid fundamentals. Expectations of eased U.S.-Iran tensions and rising global equity markets have boosted risk sentiment. However, the real strength lies in supply constraints: frequent strikes and force majeure at overseas mines, coupled with insufficient global capital expenditure, have tightened ore supply. Domestic copper concentrate treatment charges have hit record lows, squeezing smelter margins. Although sulfuric acid revenues provide some relief, raw material shortages persist. On the demand side, seasonal strength in April is evident, with operating rates for refined copper rod exceeding 80%. Cable and copper tube manufacturers report full order books, with some even struggling to keep up with shipments. Declining inventories on both the LME and SHFE support prices. Given improving macro sentiment and tight supply-demand dynamics, copper prices are expected to continue rising, with attention on resistance levels.
Tin is emerging as a hidden beneficiary of AI computing demand. Beyond dollar weakness-driven valuation support, AI servers are driving new consumption growth, surpassing traditional server requirements. Additionally, steady demand from photovoltaics and new energy vehicles enhances tin’s industrial appeal. Although overseas supply recovery is anticipated, low domestic raw material inventories and limited smelting profits constrain production expansion. Against a backdrop of strong tech stocks and semiconductor optimism, tin prices are poised for further gains, making it an attractive long position.
Aluminum is caught between geopolitical risks and domestic weaknesses. Middle East conflicts threaten shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz, supporting overseas prices. However, high domestic social inventories of 1.448 million tons continue to weigh on prices. While downstream processing operating rates have improved, slow inventory drawdowns limit upside potential. Aluminum is likely to experience wide fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions dominating in the short term. Chasing rallies is not advisable.
Zinc is trapped between cost support and inventory pressure. Low zinc concentrate treatment charges reflect tight mine supply, keeping smelter costs elevated and limiting refined zinc output. This provides a floor for prices. However, domestic social inventories have slightly increased to around 254,200 tons, capping gains. Optimism from Trump’s remarks boosted LME zinc by 1.22% overnight to $3,325 per ton. Zinc is expected to trade within a narrow range, with investors watching for inventory turnover signals.
Nickel and lead face weak fundamentals. Nickel suffers from oversupply due to expanding Indonesian capacity and sluggish demand from stainless steel and new energy batteries. Lead is in a seasonal lull, with battery plant operating rates declining and import supplies adding pressure. Both metals lack upward catalysts and are likely to remain weak.
Looking ahead, the market balances Fed policy uncertainty and Middle East tensions. Investors should focus on supply-side stories—such as copper’s ore shortages and tin’s AI-driven demand—and inventory trends. Sustained copper drawdowns could signal a new uptrend, while high aluminum stocks may hinder rebounds. Short-term strategies favor buying dips in copper and tin, avoiding aluminum’s volatility, and remaining cautious on nickel and lead. In a uncertain environment, following data and logic is key to navigating the market.
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