During the week of May 11, London spot gold opened at $4,691.98 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,773.58, a low of $4,511.19, and closed at $4,539.6. Market participants believe there is a high probability of a rebound in international gold prices this week. A recent reader poll shows that 42% of respondents are bullish on gold for the week, 26% expect a range-bound market, and 32% are bearish.
Wu Di, Independent Analyst: The pivot point for this week is $4,608 per ounce. Fundamentally, last week saw a global bond sell-off. As U.S. inflation data surged across multiple key indicators, reaching multi-year highs, traders have largely priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, while bets on a rate hike within the year have increased. Bolstered by the tightening outlook for Fed policy, the U.S. dollar index broke through the key psychological level of 99 after consecutive gains, reaching its highest point since early April. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged nearly 14 basis points to 4.596%, its highest level since February 2025, marking its largest single-day gain in over a year. The more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 9 basis points to 4.075%. Technically, the early Asian session saw a break below a key moving average, increasing the likelihood of further declines. However, the stochastic indicator on the 4-hour chart is in oversold territory, which may limit the short-term downside volatility of gold. The weekly pivot point is $4,608 per ounce. Trading below this level suggests the market is currently bearish. Initial support is seen around $4,442 per ounce. A decisive break below this level would shift support to around $4,345. On the upside, the pivot point at $4,608 acts as the first resistance. A sustained break above this level would shift the weekly bias from bearish to bullish, with resistance then adjusting to around $4,705.
Zhou Zhicheng, Independent Analyst: International gold and silver prices may decline. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding the market forecast of 3.7% and marking the highest reading since May 2023. Core CPI increased 2.8% year-on-year, above the expected 2.7%, reaching its highest level since September 2025. Geopolitical tensions are filtering into the price system through energy, airfare, and transportation costs. These combined factors have reignited U.S. inflationary pressures, squeezing the Fed's room for rate cuts this year. U.S. industrial production grew 0.7% month-on-month in April, the largest monthly increase in over a year. Production of motor vehicles and parts jumped 3.7%, with electrical equipment and fabricated metal products related to data center construction also performing strongly. However, some market participants warn that part of this growth may stem from companies stockpiling inventory in advance, and combined with cost pressures from geopolitical issues, the sustainability of the recovery is questionable. Recently, the U.S. Senate officially confirmed Wash as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The market reaction was concerning: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.48%, the 30-year surpassed 5%, and the 2-year yield climbed above the upper limit of the Fed's target range. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike by early December have now exceeded 30%, the probability of holding rates steady is around 60%, and the chance of a cut is only 1.3%. Bond market repricing and rising rate hike pressure are constraining the policy options for the incoming Fed Chair, Wash. Current geopolitical tensions remain high, and significant uncertainty may exacerbate "knee-jerk," disorderly volatility in gold prices. Resistance levels for gold are at $4,670, $4,720, and $4,850 per ounce. Support levels are at $4,450, $4,380, and $4,300 per ounce. Given high geopolitical uncertainty this week and the release of the Fed's April policy meeting minutes, a scenario of gold rising sharply before falling cannot be ruled out. The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 59.78. Silver is expected to trade in a range of $83.5 to $71.5 per ounce this week, trending lower.
Li Yuefeng, Researcher at Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center: Rising rate hike expectations put short-term pressure on gold. Looking ahead this week, the risk of renewed conflict in the Middle East persists, keeping geopolitical factors a key market focus. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike are increasing, and the release of the Fed meeting minutes this week will test the $4,500 per ounce level for gold. Technically, gold failed to decisively break above the $4,750 resistance level. The $4,500 level is under test, and a break below could lead to further downside. Short-term resistance lies in the $4,560-$4,600 area, with key resistance at $4,680-$4,710. Short-term support is in the $4,530-$4,500 area, with key support at $4,400-$4,350. In the short term, gold may trade in a range of $4,500 to $4,750 per ounce. Key downside support is around $4,350, while key upside resistance is near $4,800. However, gold remains above its 10-month moving average and within a zone of multiple supports, including the daily 200-day moving average, indicating the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Hong Jie, Registered Senior Gold Investment Analyst: International gold prices may have further room to decline. On the news front, a combination of a strong U.S. dollar, sharply higher U.S. Treasury yields, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East has shifted the market landscape. Concurrently rising crude oil prices are adding to global inflationary pressures, rapidly fueling market expectations that the Fed will tighten monetary policy and restart rate hikes, directly suppressing gold's bullish momentum. This week, market focus is centered on developments in the Middle East. An escalation of conflict could reignite inflation expectations, influencing the short-term fluctuation pattern of gold prices. From a technical perspective, gold has entered a sustained correction channel in the short term, with the weekly chart closing with a bearish candlestick, highlighting the bearish tone. Based on the price pattern, there is still room for further downward adjustment, and the short-term weak trend is unlikely to reverse quickly. Key support below is in the $4,330-$4,300 per ounce range. A decisive break below this support would likely initiate a new downtrend. Strong short-term resistance above is concentrated in the $4,700-$4,730 range.
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