Apple futures experienced a narrow-range consolidation, closing nearly flat, while jujube futures ended the session lower after a volatile day.
Apple Futures Market Overview
In the futures market, the Apple 2610 contract closed at 7,521 yuan per tonne, a change of -10 yuan or -0.13%. In the spot market, the price for 80# premium late-ripening Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 3.25 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 stood at -1021, up 10 from the previous session. In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late-ripening Fuji was 3.40 yuan per jin, also unchanged, with the spot basis AP10 at -721, up 10.
Recent market information indicates that trading activity for stored apples in producing areas is moderate, with outbound shipments being slow. In the western part of the northwest region, prices for trader-held stocks are weakening, with widespread selling activity, yet shipment speed remains sluggish. Farmer-held stocks are nearly depleted. The Shandong producing area's overall market is stable, with traders sourcing cost-effective, partially-red fruit. Shipments for e-commerce and export are acceptable, while high-quality fruit is scarce and prices remain firm. For the new season, the overall supply of early-ripening apples is limited, with prices lower than the same period last year. Prices in Qixia for 80# partially-red premium fruit range from 2.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin, with standard-grade 80# fruit around 1.5 to 2.0 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi's Luochuan area, farmer standard-grade fruit is priced between 2.3 and 2.8 yuan per jin, while trader semi-premium outbound prices range from 3.5 to 4.2 yuan per jin. In Gansu's Jingning area, semi-premium fruit is priced between 4.5 and 7.0 yuan per jin.
Apple Market Analysis
The main apple futures contract traded within a narrow range yesterday, closing almost unchanged with a reduction in open interest, continuing its consolidation at low levels. In producing areas, trading of stored fruit is moderate with slow shipments. In the northwest, low-priced sales of trader stocks are still meeting poor demand, as inventories are not yet cleared and some remaining stock has quality issues. The Shandong market is stable, with cost-effective sources seeing acceptable shipments and high-quality fruit being scarce with firm prices. Overall destocking progress is slow. The new season's early-ripening apple output is limited, with prices below last year's levels. Subsequent weather conditions during the growing season require monitoring. In consumption areas, seasonal fresh fruit is diverting consumption, terminal shipments are sluggish, and trader restocking willingness is moderate. The market is expected to maintain a low-level consolidation pattern in the short term.
Apple Trading Strategy
Neutral.
Apple Market Risks
Terminal consumption recovery falling short of expectations; low-priced summer fresh fruit diverting demand; persistent downward pressure from new season production increase expectations.
Jujube Futures Market Overview
In the futures market, the Jujube 2609 contract closed at 8,100 yuan per tonne, a change of -90 yuan or -1.10%. In the spot market, the price for Grade One grey jujube in Hebei was 7.60 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ09 stood at -500, up 90 from the previous session.
Recent market information shows regional divergence in the new season jujube fruit setting progress. Progress in Tumushuke and Maigaiti areas is ahead of Aksu and Alar areas. As the fruit size increases, its resistance to risks improves. With weather forecasts indicating a return of high temperatures in late July, market focus is on the potential impact on fruit drop and the third and fourth flowerings, requiring continuous monitoring of weather variables. On July 15, six trucks arrived at the parking area of Hebei's Cui' erzhuang market, carrying goods ranging from finished products to off-grade, with prices generally stable. The arriving goods were relatively cost-effective, leading to acceptable transactions. At Guangdong's Ruyifang market, four trucks arrived, with market prices remaining stable for now. Downstream traders are purchasing based on demand, with approximately one truck's worth of goods transacted.
Jujube Market Analysis
The main jujube futures contract closed lower after a volatile session yesterday, with an increase in open interest, continuing its weak performance. In producing areas, destocking of old-season supplies is slow, and the pattern of ample supply and demand continues. New season fruit setting progress varies by region, with fruit in some areas gaining improved risk resistance. The approaching high temperatures warrant observation of their impact on fruit drop and flowering, necessitating ongoing tracking of weather variables. In consumption areas, the quality of arriving goods is mixed. During the traditional off-season, downstream purchasing is need-based, and spot prices are generally stable. With no clear supply-demand drivers currently, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term.
Jujube Trading Strategy
Neutral.
Jujube Market Risks
Slow pace of destocking for high inventory levels; weak restocking demand from downstream rigid demand; limited support from weather disruptions in producing areas.
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