Zheshang Securities has released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on J&T EXPRESS-W (01519). This assessment considers the company's sustained competitive edge in the Southeast Asian market, the emerging scale advantages in new markets as parcel volume grows, and its continuous efforts to expand cooperation with various e-commerce platforms in China. The key viewpoints from Zheshang Securities are outlined below.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company handled a total of 8.46 billion parcels, representing a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with an average daily volume of 92 million parcels. In the Southeast Asian market, J&T handled 2.44 billion parcels in Q4 2025, surging 73.6% year-on-year, with a daily average of 26.5 million parcels, also up 73.6%. The company's performance in Southeast Asia remains robust, primarily driven by the traditional e-commerce peak season and the ongoing rise in overall online penetration rates across the region. J&T, leveraging its stable business strategy, continues to enhance its competitive advantages, with market share increasingly concentrating towards the leading player.
In new markets, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt, J&T maintained the strong growth momentum seen since the previous quarter. The parcel volume in Q4 2025 exceeded 100 million, reaching 130 million parcels, a 79.7% year-on-year increase, with a daily average of 1.45 million parcels, also up 79.7%. This growth is largely attributed to the company actively capitalizing on e-commerce expansion opportunities and deepening partnerships with platforms like TikTok and Mercado Libre.
In the Chinese market, Q4 2025 parcel volume reached 5.89 billion, with a daily average of 64 million parcels, meeting expectations. Since October, growth in China's express delivery parcel volume has moderated, with the growth rate dropping to single digits, indicating an industry-wide shift towards high-quality development. For the full year 2025, the company's total parcel volume surpassed the 300 billion mark for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion parcels, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, with a daily average of 82.5 million parcels, up 22.6%.
In Southeast Asia, the annual parcel volume was 7.66 billion, a significant 67.8% year-on-year increase, with a daily average of 21 million parcels. As of H1 2025, J&T's market share in Southeast Asia stood at 32.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from H1 2024, marking its sixth consecutive year as the market leader. With deepening cooperation with e-commerce platforms like TTS and its operational strengths in the region, the broker believes J&T's parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia is poised to continue making substantial contributions to the group's overall performance.
In new markets, the annual parcel volume reached 400 million, a 43.6% year-on-year increase, with a daily average of 1.1 million parcels. Currently, these new markets exhibit low e-commerce penetration, a fragmented competitive landscape, and immense growth potential. By replicating its successful Southeast Asian strategy, these markets are expected to become the company's second growth curve.
In the Chinese market, the annual parcel volume was 22.07 billion, an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with a daily average of 60.5 million parcels. J&T's volume growth in China has largely kept pace with the overall industry. According to data from the State Post Bureau, China's express delivery business volume reached 214 billion parcels in 2026, growing approximately 8% year-on-year, suggesting J&T's Chinese operations are likely to continue providing steady volume growth for the group.
The acquisition of equity in two subsidiaries in new markets accelerates the company's strategic layout there. On December 28, the company announced plans to acquire approximately 36.99% of Jet Global for $950 million; upon completion, J&T Express will hold a 100% stake in Jet Global. It also plans to acquire about 46.55% of JNT Express KSA for $106 million, resulting in full ownership of this Saudi business entity post-transaction.
Jet Global, which covers markets like Brazil, Egypt, and Mexico, saw its pre-tax loss narrow significantly in 2024 compared to 2023, with total assets and net liabilities of $640 million and $590 million, respectively. JNT Express KSA, the Saudi division, also showed substantial improvement in its pre-tax and post-tax losses in 2024 compared to 2023. Its total assets were $86 million, with a net asset value of $37 million. The acquisition price implies a Price-to-Book ratio of approximately 6.15x.
Both transactions are executed to fulfill the exit rights of historical investors, signifying J&T's ongoing efforts to solidify control over its overseas operations and enhance strategic command over key emerging markets. The core emerging market businesses are continuously optimizing, showing a trend towards profitability recovery. Through centralized control, J&T can intensify integration efforts in core resource allocation, network synergy, and unified digital platform management, thereby strengthening its service capabilities for e-commerce in major emerging economies.
Risk factors include potential economic downturns, industry growth falling below expectations, intensification of express delivery price wars, and slower-than-anticipated progress in overseas operations.
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