On March 3rd, major A-share indices closed lower, likely impacted by market consolidation. The previously rising Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw its market price plunge by 5.8%. Despite this, capital flowed in against the trend, with the ETF recording a net subscription of 36 million units for the day. It also attracted 21.92 million yuan in net inflows yesterday.
Technical analysts point out that after the MACD indicator formed a golden cross, the fast line (DIF) has remained above the slow line (DEA), signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. This suggests that short-term market buying forces are dominant, and the upward momentum for the stock price may still be strong.
Among the constituent stocks, Western Gold led gains with an increase of over 2%, while Xiamen Tungsten and Yongxing Materials closed higher against the market trend. The remaining 57 stocks declined, with Shenghe Resources, Zhongxi Nonferrous Metals, Yunnan Tin Industry, and Xingye Silver Tin hitting the daily limit down.
How should the significant drop in the nonferrous metals sector be interpreted? Industry insiders indicate that the pullback is essentially a release of sentiment and deleveraging, with the easing of crowded positions potentially establishing a "golden pit" opportunity. The sharp decline is not a fundamental reversal but a healthy correction triggered by profit-taking and market caution after recent gains. After this adjustment, sector risks have been effectively released, paving the way for new allocation opportunities.
Against the backdrop of global geopolitical disruptions, the underlying pricing logic of the nonferrous metals sector is undergoing a paradigm shift—from being "industrial vitamins" (additives dependent on cycles) to "security metals" and "war metals." The irreplaceability of metals like tungsten (for armor-piercing projectiles), antimony (for ammunition), and rare earths (for precision guidance) in defense applications makes them strategic assets in major power rivalries. Additionally, deglobalization and supply chain restructuring are driving nations to pursue resource independence. Resource-exporting countries are reclaiming pricing power through export controls, creating a long-term supply-demand mismatch due to extreme supply rigidity and strategic stockpiling demand.
Guojin Securities notes that the nonferrous metals industry is undergoing a profound transformation—it is no longer just a passive reflector of economic cycles but a core carrier of energy transition, digital infrastructure, and national security strategies. Driven by structural forces such as the AI revolution, grid upgrades, and rising penetration of new energy, resource scarcity is being repriced, and supply-demand imbalances are expected to intensify.
Looking ahead, can the nonferrous metals sector continue to rise? Industrial Securities believes that the sector may regain momentum for an upward move by mid-year. The current nonferrous metals cycle is driven by overseas manufacturing restructuring and unconventional stockpiling against the backdrop of deglobalization, differing from traditional monetary cycles. This cycle is likely to be more prolonged and persistent.
[Nonferrous Metals Momentum Arrives, "Super Cycle" Appears Unstoppable] The Nonferrous Metals ETF Huabao (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index that comprehensively covers sectors such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It spans different cyclical phases, including precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery), offering broad exposure to capture the sector's beta performance. Additionally, as a margin trading标的, this ETF serves as an efficient tool for one-click allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
*Institutional views referenced from: ① Guojin Securities report dated January 4, "Nonferrous Metals Industry 2026 Annual Strategy: Supply-Demand Reshaping and Resource Repricing"; ② Industrial Securities views released on February 6, detailed in the earlier report "Nonferrous Metals Industry 2026 Investment Strategy: Deglobalization and New Demand Resonance, Resource Stocks' Davis Double Click Moment."
Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors are advised to invest rationally based on their financial situation and risk tolerance, with careful attention to position and risk management.
ETF fee details: When subscribing or redeeming fund units, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-market trading fees are subject to the rates charged by securities firms. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee.
Feeder fund fee details: For the Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee is 1,000 RMB per transaction for amounts of 2 million RMB or more, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB and 2 million RMB, and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. For the Class C feeder fund, there is no subscription fee. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% applies.
Risk disclosure: The Nonferrous Metals ETF Huabao passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, which has a base date of December 31, 2013, and was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five full years is as follows: 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%; 2025: +91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules. Past performance of the index does not guarantee future results. The mention of constituent stocks herein is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or represent the holdings or trading activities of the fund manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the sales institution. All information appearing herein (including but not limited to stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. Past performance of a fund does not indicate future returns. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest with caution.
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