Dongxing Securities released a research report stating that, as of early 2026, international oil prices have fallen broadly on a month-over-month basis. China's crude oil imports increased month-over-month, while exports saw a significant decline. Overall, the crude oil market is characterized by relatively ample supply and sluggish demand growth, putting short-term price pressure. The main views of Dongxing Securities are as follows:
Crude oil prices have declined. As of January 2, 2026, the settlement price and spot price for Brent crude futures were $60.75 per barrel and $61.33 per barrel, down 2.72% and 2.14% month-over-month, respectively. The settlement price and spot price for WTI crude futures were $57.32 per barrel and $57.95 per barrel, down 2.25% and 1.70% month-over-month, respectively. The ESPO crude spot price was $48.91 per barrel, a decrease of $3.34 per barrel or 6.39% month-over-month.
In December 2025, the OPEC crude spot price was $61.78 per barrel, down $2.68 per barrel or 4.16% from the previous month. The monthly average spot price for Chinese crude (Daqing) was $58.20 per barrel, down $2.54 per barrel or 4.19% month-over-month. The monthly average spot price for Chinese crude (South China Sea) was $54.38 per barrel, down $2.31 per barrel or 4.08% month-over-month. The monthly average spot price for Chinese crude (Shengli) was $57.66 per barrel, down $2.48 per barrel or 4.12% month-over-month.
In the United States, operable refinery capacity utilization rates increased; finished motor gasoline supplied rose month-over-month; while the supply of petroleum products declined. As of December 26, 2025, the U.S. refinery operable weekly average capacity utilization rate was 94.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. U.S. weekly finished motor gasoline supplied was 8,563 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 237 thousand barrels per day or 2.85% month-over-month. U.S. motor gasoline inventories were 234,334 thousand barrels, up 19,912 thousand barrels or 9.29% month-over-month. U.S. petroleum product supplied was 19,376 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 813 thousand barrels per day or 4.03% month-over-month.
U.S. crude oil import and export volumes increased month-over-month; China's crude oil import volume increased month-over-month, while its export volume decreased. In December 2025, the average U.S. crude oil import volume was 6,170.40 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 480.20 thousand barrels per day or 8.44% from the previous month. The average monthly export volume was 3,932.25 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 386 thousand barrels per day or 10.88% from the previous month.
In November 2025, China's crude oil import volume was 50.89 million tons, an increase of 2.53 million tons or 5.23% from the previous month. The export volume was 79,460.25 tons, a decrease of 92,659.89 tons or 53.83% from the previous month.
Conclusion: Crude oil prices have declined. In the United States, operable refinery capacity utilization increased; finished motor gasoline supplied rose month-over-month while petroleum product supply declined; and motor gasoline inventories increased month-over-month. U.S. crude oil import and export volumes increased month-over-month; China's crude oil import volume increased month-over-month, while its export volume decreased.
Risk warnings: Geopolitical risks; risks of significant fluctuations in energy prices; risks of demand falling short of expectations.
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