This week, the three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping 1.55%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing 1.37%. How will the market develop from here? Let's see what institutions have to say.
CITIC Securities: A-Shares Show Greater Resilience, Some Non-AI Undervalued Sectors Have a Basis for Recovery
Recently, the technology sector in A-shares has demonstrated significantly stronger resilience compared to overseas markets, with the domestic computing power chain in particular showing a trend independent of overseas counterparts. Companies in A-shares' overseas-linked chains follow the same pricing logic for heavy-asset cyclical stocks as their overseas peers, while domestic chains, under the narrative of import substitution and self-sufficiency, have additionally developed a typical growth stock premium story, with two different pricing frameworks operating simultaneously. Beyond the technology sector, some non-AI sectors, having been sufficiently adjusted previously, are beginning to show characteristics of incremental funds entering on the left side, with securities firms and chemicals being typical examples. The trading proportion of securities firms plus chemicals once hit a new high for the year this week, with a significant increase in volume. On individual trading days, they managed to rise alongside AI, and their stock prices have shown notable recovery.
CSC Financial: Divergence Intensifies, What is the Outlook for the Q3 Market?
The following factors will determine the market trend in the third quarter: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power still maintains high prosperity, with its interim report performance and overseas financial reports worthy of attention. Meanwhile, given the macroeconomic pressures since April, the economic stimulus measures from the July Politburo meeting are quite important. Regarding liquidity, external disturbances are increasing while domestic conditions remain neutral. On the risk appetite front, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants could cause short-term market fluctuations. Considering the linkage effect of global tech stocks, major overseas computing power markets like Japan, South Korea, and the US also need continuous tracking. For sector allocation, while the prosperity logic for AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility is intensifying; it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs and to position on pullbacks. Lithium batteries are expected to enter a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to recover, presenting opportunities for phased valuation repair in new energy. Dividend stocks are poised for an oversold rebound, offering relatively high allocation value. Focus areas include: banking, coal, utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, and lithium battery materials (VC).
Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Adjustment in June-July, Uptrend Resumes During Q2 Reporting Season
The basis for the significantly divergent market in May-June: fundamental divergence objectively exists, and divergence in capital flows is even more pronounced. Unstable microstructure makes the divergence in capital flows prone to a "negative second derivative." The adjustment phase in June-July: In the short term, the global AI computing power chain is adjusting in resonance. Subsequently, the listing of a domestic storage leader may create a siphon effect. The inertia of retail investors trading in technology sector funds may be temporarily disrupted; watch for the possibility of short-term oversold conditions. The pattern of not fearing to wait for a major uptrend remains unchanged. After short-term fluctuations, A-shares may set off again during the Q2 reporting season. Mid-term opportunities still exist; the major uptrend is not over, nor is the tech-led rally. If short-term market inertia is broken, the next round of rising market will more easily see a broad rally, and the tech rally will also go further.
GF Securities Strategy: Was the Dot-Com Bubble Burst by Fed Rate Hikes?
Since March this year, with changes in the US-Iran situation and the change of the Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for US interest rate hikes have fluctuated repeatedly, disturbing global markets. Earlier, we discussed the impact of Fed rate hikes in several reports. However, during recent roadshows, we could still strongly sense widespread concern about Fed rate hikes, especially their potential impact on tech stocks. From our observation, the underlying reason this concern lingers is a common first impression: the last dot-com bubble was burst by Fed rate hikes. Is that really the case? We believe it is very necessary to dissect the detailed situation of 1999-2000 once again.
China Galaxy Securities: Anchor on High-Growth AI Tracks, Seize Opportunities in Cyclical Recovery and Overseas Expansion
Review of H1 2026: Overall significantly outperformed the broader market, with AI-related sectors performing brightly. Outlook for H2 2026: Looking at investment opportunities in the machinery and equipment sector for the second half of 2026, we believe three aspects can be considered. First, continue to tightly grasp the tech growth主线 related to AI, including optical module testing instruments, AI PCB equipment and materials, AI power generation equipment, etc. Second, the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes future industries and emerging industries, which are key to China's economic transformation, upgrading, and shifting growth drivers, including humanoid robots, controlled nuclear fusion, etc. Third, select undervalued, fundamentally sound stocks with upward sector beta based on the cyclical characteristics of various细分 industries, including engineering machinery, machine tools, and other sectors.
Everbright Securities: Multiple Factors Disturb the Market, Seize Layout Opportunities Amid Volatility
A-shares experienced significant volatility this week, mainly influenced by multiple factors, including: 1) Intensified volatility in overseas markets this week, causing some disturbance to A-shares; 2) The rise in US May PCE data triggered market concerns about a potential Fed rate hike in September; 3) Uncertainty remains regarding the restoration of shipping order in the Strait of Hormuz and the后续 implementation of the US-Iran agreement; 4) During market volatility, trading factors such as margin financing and量化 further加剧 market fluctuations.
Looking ahead, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. From a medium- to long-term perspective, supported by both fundamentals and industry trends, a gradual震荡上行 is expected. For allocation direction, focus on three景气主线 represented by hard tech. In the medium to long term, high-growth directions remain the core of allocation, but we believe they are not limited to the tech sector. Besides technology, sectors like the export chain and resources are expected to see continuous fundamental improvement and may deserve close attention in the future. For hard tech, focus on electronics, communications, defense军工, etc. For the export chain, focus on power equipment, machinery equipment, light industry manufacturing, etc. For upstream resources, focus on non-ferrous metals, coal, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, etc.
Huajin Securities: Fundamentals to Dominate in July, Technology Remains the Main Theme, Focus on High-Performing Tech and Cyclical Industries
In terms of major styles, growth and some cyclical industries may be relatively advantageous in July this year. First, historical复盘 shows that financial and growth styles tend to outperform in July. The outperformance of the growth style in July is mainly driven by upward industry trends, policy support, and宽松 liquidity. Second, looking at July this year, tech growth and some cyclical industries, driven by upward industry trends and policies, may continue to outperform. Regarding大盘 vs.小盘 styles, they may be relatively balanced in July this year. First, historically, since 2011, micro-cap and超大盘 styles have outperformed in 9 years, but styles have趋于均衡 in the past 5 years. Second, currently,大盘 and小盘 styles may偏均衡 in July this year: 1) July进入 the earnings season, and profits in tech and some cyclical industries may be relatively advantageous, potentially favoring mid-to-large cap styles; 2) Liquidity in July may remain宽松, favoring small and mid-cap styles; 3) Proactive policies in July may benefit both large and small/mid-cap styles.
Zhongtai Securities Strategy: Important IPO Cycle Gearing Up
This week, A-shares presented a pattern of "rushing higher then falling back,极致分化" under the interweaving of multiple macro events. Macro-wise, Iran and the US held talks in Switzerland on June 21, announcing an agreement reached in the early hours of the next day. Tech-wise, in the early hours of June 25, leading memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology reported better-than-expected Q3 FY2026 results. Against this backdrop, A-share sectors剧烈分化. A major IPO cycle is gearing up, with the tech style remaining the main theme. Among leading sectors, building materials and electronics were the two clearest主线 this week. Building materials were driven by the涨价 logic of upstream CCL/electronic cloth. The electronics板块 benefited from the catalyst of Micron's超预期财报, with the memory chip concept全线爆发 on June 25. Non-bank financials were also boosted by the科创板 IPO跟投 system and active market trading.
Zheshang Securities: Divergence Continues, Non-Banks Surge, Hold AI, Watch for Dips in Securities Firms
Looking ahead, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices are still above their 20-day moving averages. Although they may still be affected by spillover from海外波动, they are expected to maintain a偏强震荡 pattern. In contrast, non-ChiNext/STAR indices, especially权重 indices, have weaker trends. Taking the Shanghai Composite as an example, after this week's adjustment, it has started to fill the gap from the June 12跳空缺口, and may need to探 further downward in the future. Additionally, securities have become one of the极少数 non-AI indices that have risen for three consecutive weeks since May. Their fundamentals are solid, valuation is at historically low levels, they have seen less涨幅 in this bull market, and their technical形态 has爆发力, potentially making them one of the为数不多的 investment highlights outside the AI板块 in Q3. For allocation, it is suggested that existing medium-term positions can be held, and allocation can be适当增配 when the Shanghai Composite Index回踩前低, forming a "golden右脚." Sector-wise, despite increased volatility, the ChiNext and STAR Market remain the market's焦点 for attracting capital and attention and should still be held as the main theme, with subsequent关注 on the resolution of their daily MACD背离. Furthermore, the securities板块 has recently shown signs of strengthening and can be watched for逢低关注 in Q3.
Kaiyuan Securities Strategy：Bull Markets Have Many Pullbacks, Maintain Bull Market Confidence While Lowering Slope Expectations
Market volatility significantly放大 this week, with notable declines especially on Tuesday and Friday. The question most investors关心 is: Is this a signal that the bull market is ending? Is the tech rally over? Our judgment is relatively clear: bull markets have many pullbacks, and the current bull market is not over; but while maintaining confidence in the bull market, we must also lower expectations for its slope. The current market is not a trend reversal but rather an intensification of volatility under the共同约束 of valuation, crowding, and景气 scarcity after the bull market enters its third year. Since June 8, although the market has experienced multiple fluctuations, it has overall still risen without a trend性破位; this week's decline is not solely an A-share issue, as Japanese and South Korean股市 also saw significant adjustments, indicating common factors behind it such as global risk appetite冲击 and降温 in crowded trading. More importantly, from the perspective of the three DDM elements, the盈利端 has not comprehensively恶化, the流动性端 has not明显收紧, and although the风险偏好端 has波动, it is not a全面塌陷. This is a回调 within a bull market process, not a回落 after a bull market.
Soochow Securities: Global Liquidity Inflection Point, Controversies and Opportunities in Tech Hardware
Since April, the AI computing power hardware行情 driven by景气 signals has been in full swing. Following the demand and order transmission sequence of "terminals → manufacturing → equipment → materials," upstream equipment and material标的 in the computing power hardware chain in both domestic and overseas markets have shown明显正反馈 in May-June. However, since June, the行情 has become more颠簸. What is clear is that, whether from the perspective of liquidity or industry trends, it is not支持 to talk about "the AI computing power行情 peaking" now. If subsequent industry signals can make the market realize that SOTA models/Agent new products can effectively撬动 incremental market demand and broaden the boundaries of AI commercialization落地, then investors'质疑 about the sustainability of CSP capital expenditure can be pushed further back. The current分歧 then resembles the situation in Q4 last year, becoming another "false alarm."
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