On May 25, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a notable rebound, with Bitcoin's price recovering swiftly to around $77,000 per coin after a recent dip to previous lows. The positive market response is primarily attributed to news of the United States announcing a phased agreement with Iran and several Middle Eastern nations, which includes key terms for the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Moneta Markets, BTC initially retreated by approximately 4% but quickly recouped its losses following the release of the negotiation news. The institution's analysis suggests that the marginal easing of geopolitical risk premiums has freed up valuation space for risk assets, with crypto assets, as highly elastic instruments, benefiting in tandem. From a capital structure perspective, BTC is demonstrating renewed strength after ending a prolonged period of underperformance relative to traditional assets. Moneta Markets posits that persistent high inflation, structurally elevated oil prices, and an environment of sustained higher interest rates continue to exert pressure on bonds. In this context, Bitcoin is poised to potentially enter a new cycle of relative advantage compared to stocks and bonds. The institution assesses that some capital is shifting from gold to Bitcoin, while advancements in AI and blockchain technology are also enhancing the ability to counter inflationary pressures. Institutional recognition and allocation to crypto assets are steadily increasing. On the macroeconomic front, the direction of the crypto market in the next phase will be jointly determined by the progress of Iran negotiations, the pace of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the subsequent policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Institutions have observed that long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, market structure shows no significant deterioration, and on-chain data maintains relative health. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings also serve as crucial observation windows for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes can hold key levels holds far more guiding significance than intraday volatility. Moneta Markets anticipates that Bitcoin may see a back-and-forth struggle for direction within the short-term range of $75,000 to $82,000 per coin, while possessing the potential for a medium-term breakout above previous highs. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets necessitate that investors prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, the direction of Treasury yields, regulatory developments, and the flow of spot ETF funds. Investors are advised to avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and to adapt to market turning points with a rational pace.
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