Tilray: Same Tired Story

seekingalpha2021-07-29

Summary Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter. The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to ...

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Comments

MINH
2021-07-29
MINH
Yes
MINH
2021-07-29
MINH
yes
- ccl85:
  Good
Shadowrider
2021-07-29
Shadowrider
Nice
chefbean
2021-07-29
chefbean
Like pls
abp
2021-07-29
abp
Pls like and comments
- ST04:
  Ok
- Shadowrider:
  Ok
LiJi
2021-07-29
LiJi
anyone invested?

Leave a comment

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Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.\nConfusing Quarter\nThe new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.\nThe combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.\nWhat the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.\nThose revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.\nThe biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.\nThe standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.\nThe big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.\nWhile the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nThe inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.\nGood Story, Not Great Value\nWhile the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.\nTilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.\nThe company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":808173054,"gmtCreate":1627566908178,"gmtModify":1703492524588,"author":{"id":"3586859788675252","authorId":"3586859788675252","name":"MINH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536eb7671d76bffcba14ebf4ccd21b93","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586859788675252","authorIdStr":"3586859788675252"},"htmlText":"Yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808173054","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808144187,"gmtCreate":1627566814449,"gmtModify":1703492519572,"author":{"id":"3586859788675252","authorId":"3586859788675252","name":"MINH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/536eb7671d76bffcba14ebf4ccd21b93","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586859788675252","authorIdStr":"3586859788675252"},"htmlText":"yes&nbsp;","listText":"yes&nbsp;","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808144187","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5370234,"gmtCreate":1627567045959,"gmtModify":1663231676768,"authorId":4089344169550100,"author":{"id":4089344169550100,"idStr":"4089344169550100","authorId":4089344169550100,"name":"ccl85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7e448f67f21b882051520efa26dadd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808144187,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Good</u>","text":"<u>Good</u>","html":"<u>Good</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808152566,"gmtCreate":1627566357655,"gmtModify":1703492503015,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808152566","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808159753,"gmtCreate":1627566196272,"gmtModify":1703492495733,"author":{"id":"3554935180693279","authorId":"3554935180693279","name":"chefbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75bcdd1d22221ef3b8f10c64b73ea420","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554935180693279","authorIdStr":"3554935180693279"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808159753","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808161987,"gmtCreate":1627565611949,"gmtModify":1703492469299,"author":{"id":"3581979721991802","authorId":"3581979721991802","name":"abp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c0424f61209387c56148e921c507f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581979721991802","authorIdStr":"3581979721991802"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comments&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comments&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808161987","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5370012,"gmtCreate":1627566115932,"gmtModify":1663231676537,"authorId":4087817915654130,"author":{"id":4087817915654130,"idStr":"4087817915654130","authorId":4087817915654130,"name":"ST04","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808161987,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5370076,"gmtCreate":1627566371260,"gmtModify":1663231672731,"authorId":3582060513966213,"author":{"id":3582060513966213,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorId":3582060513966213,"name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808161987,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808163293,"gmtCreate":1627565605212,"gmtModify":1703492468490,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"htmlText":"anyone 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