In the initial days following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Maxence Visseau, founder of investment firm Arkevium, has been focused on interpreting the market implications of the event, placing artificial intelligence (AI) at the core of his investment process. Large language models have helped Visseau reduce the time spent on research by approximately 80%. He uses Anthropic's Claude to conduct stress tests on multiple scenarios simultaneously, compare historical precedents, and identify potential ripple effects across various asset classes. "I was awake for nearly 48 hours straight, monitoring missile interceptions in the UAE, running scenario analyses, and preparing for market openings," said Visseau, a Dubai-based macro trading strategist. "It's precisely in moments like these that AI becomes indispensable." Visseau noted that while AI cannot fully replace human judgment, he believes its time-saving advantage is becoming increasingly critical for navigating highly volatile markets. The Iran war has disrupted energy supplies and resulted in at least 4,000 casualties. Interviews with global investors and strategists indicate that the conflict has accelerated the integration of AI tools into workflows, although some also pointed out limitations, such as unclear prompts and inaccurate results. "We are witnessing history—this is the first major conflict where AI is used in warfare planning, and the first time traders are relying on AI to model war scenarios in an unprecedented way," said Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, who has 25 years of trading experience. One significant advantage of using AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Gemini, and China's DeepSeek is the dramatic improvement in time management efficiency. Jian Shi Cortesi, a fund manager at GAM Investment Management based in Zurich, stated that what used to take half an hour to gather updates from various news sources can now be accomplished in seconds, providing key developments of the conflict almost instantly. Collecting information on specific companies, which previously took days, can now be done in a day or less. "It used to be like digging a hole with a shovel; now it's like using these giant excavators," Cortesi said. "The speed is potentially five times faster." Another benefit is AI's ability to mine historical data almost instantaneously, offering insights and context for potential future scenarios, particularly during periods of intense market volatility. Brent crude prices surged by 11% to over $119 per barrel on Thursday before stabilizing around $109, driven by fears of retaliatory attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Anna Wu, a cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp. in Sydney, uses ChatGPT and Claude to analyze the past 100 years of history, tracking every war-induced oil price spike and identifying the best-performing asset classes during each surge. To enhance the practicality of the results, she also instructs the AI to cross-reference the findings with other data points, such as median inflation and global economic growth rates. Wu mentioned that this has significantly improved efficiency, saving considerable time on historical analysis that previously required extensive Google searches. For Gustavo Pessoa, AI tools provide immediate access to information that was previously difficult to obtain quickly, such as estimating the impact of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is becoming increasingly vital for investment decisions. "We use it for everything—from understanding ship types to analyzing oil demand elasticity relative to price, and even estimating how many barrels are needed to stabilize flow," said Pessoa, a founding partner of São Paulo-based hedge fund Legacy Capital Gestora de Recursos Ltda. However, AI is not perfect and cannot replace human experience and decision-making. The technology has made errors in various fields, including game development and news content. A policymaker from the Bank of England has warned that the use of AI in trading could amplify market shocks and herd behavior. Visseau of Arkevium emphasized the need to continuously verify the accuracy of AI-generated answers. "It's an iterative process—I challenge the outputs, refine the assumptions, and introduce new data points," he said.
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