美股反弹背后：量化基金关闭空仓，要再涨100天？

华尔街见闻2022-08-18

量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

乖兔兔宝宝
2022-08-20
乖兔兔宝宝
(•̀⌄•́)
嘞撸虎7
2022-08-19
嘞撸虎7
閱
按捺
2022-08-19
按捺
瞎忽悠
Max_Ma_0777
2022-08-19
Max_Ma_0777
建議修法，散播假消息，試圖騙韭菜進場「唯一死刑」！
股市轟炸机队长
2022-08-19
股市轟炸机队长
還是小心爲妙，他們唱多的理由是？裁員，消費數據有機會開始下降。經濟衰退快要到了。
- hosw76:
  [强]
文件专输助手
2022-08-19
文件专输助手
美利堅人類的希望

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148070609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-08-18 21:59","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1148070609","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股反弹背后：量化基金关闭空仓，要再涨100天？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股反弹背后：量化基金关闭空仓，要再涨100天？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股反弹背后：量化基金关闭空仓，要再涨100天？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-08-18 21:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"1148070609","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148070609","pubTimestamp":1660831194,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Behind the rebound of US stocks: After the quantitative fund closed its short position, it began to do more","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bac5b04de89e1e7575132159402b50","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。量化基金迅速转向野村估计，自6月底市场触及低点以来，趋势跟踪对冲基金和波动控制基金已经购买了1070亿美元的全球股票期货，其中很大一部分用于平仓空头头寸。美国银行股票交易主管Glenn Koh表示：“由于仓位基本处于低位，大量现金（持有者）在场外观望，因此随着市场企稳并开始反弹，越来越多的资金流回了市场。”据华尔街见闻此前文章介绍，7月份，量化交易策略CTA解除了约1000亿美元看跌股票和债券的押注，推动美股和美债从史上最糟糕的上半年中开始复苏。根据摩根大通的估计，在期货市场进行多空双向交易的商品交易商（CTA）纷纷平掉了他们在过去几个月里建立的空头仓位，到7月底，他们的整体敞口自3月份以来首次处于中性水平。然而，随着衰退风险加剧，这种做多还能维持多久？100天？摩根大通分析师表示，做多可能会继续。该机构上周告诉其对冲基金客户，追求低波动的基金和风险平价基金每天购买价值约20亿至40亿美元的股票。该行估计，如果波动性保持在低水平，此类做多 “可能会再持续100天”。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，涨势已经触及市场的大部分角落。过去50天，标普500指数成分股中约有88%的交易价格高于平均水平，该比例远远高于6月中旬的2%。Kolanovic说：“强劲的参与度表明这次反弹是持久的，也是市场尾部风险消退的另一个表现。”“追求低波动的基金将增加整体风险敞口，尤其是股票。”基金经理则更加乐观。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett本月对投资组合经理进行民意调查后表示，他们“不再像世界末日一样悲观”。美联储激进加息下，美股能支持多久？这在一定程度上取决于美联储接下来的加息幅度。美联储官员曾警告称，将会继续加息并可能将利率维持在交易员预期的上方。另外，通胀加剧和经济衰退也可能继续冲击市场。这也解释了为什么此次美股上涨不是由传统的基金经理和多空股票对冲基金引领，而是由量化基金驱动。巴克莱美国现金股票交易主管Mike Lewis表示：“你会看到一些人做空。”桥水基金认为，当前美股处在一个长期、广泛的滞胀环境中，美股显然还没为一个低增长的环境做好准备。该机构认为，要将通胀降至美联储的目标水平，其货币政策的力度必须大到将美国经济推入衰退。这对市场的意义不言而喻。摩根士丹利则认为，很多美股上市公司表现好恰恰是由于高通胀带来的高收益，而随着通胀下行，很多公司的利润也将下行，其表现将逊于市场预期。该行的Mike Wilson团队表示：“下一轮美股下跌可能要等到9月，届时我们的负经营杠杆理论将更多地反映在盈利预测中。然而，由于美股估值过高，我们认为涨势最好的部分已经结束。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":687293432,"gmtCreate":1660993276328,"gmtModify":1676536756990,"author":{"id":"4096717876919280","authorId":"4096717876919280","name":"乖兔兔宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298a4afda1dc05d168dd5762efcdd9be","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4096717876919280","authorIdStr":"4096717876919280"},"htmlText":"(•̀⌄•́)","listText":"(•̀⌄•́)","text":"(•̀⌄•́)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687293432","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9998013432,"gmtCreate":1660895159030,"gmtModify":1676536420240,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998013432","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":687853068,"gmtCreate":1660883583955,"gmtModify":1676536753248,"author":{"id":"3571787402392083","authorId":"3571787402392083","name":"按捺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106bdd2ab7b0800d9949e20ea3819eac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571787402392083","authorIdStr":"3571787402392083"},"htmlText":"瞎忽悠","listText":"瞎忽悠","text":"瞎忽悠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687853068","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9991724822,"gmtCreate":1660882845768,"gmtModify":1676536418454,"author":{"id":"3565779381379192","authorId":"3565779381379192","name":"Max_Ma_0777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb338a5c4c9938a60c29fd3121d84e3c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565779381379192","authorIdStr":"3565779381379192"},"htmlText":"建議修法，散播假消息，試圖騙韭菜進場「唯一死刑」！","listText":"建議修法，散播假消息，試圖騙韭菜進場「唯一死刑」！","text":"建議修法，散播假消息，試圖騙韭菜進場「唯一死刑」！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991724822","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9991722569,"gmtCreate":1660882614554,"gmtModify":1676536418415,"author":{"id":"3567575098485843","authorId":"3567575098485843","name":"股市轟炸机队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec92b2a3335762e71e118cc8d1b3753","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567575098485843","authorIdStr":"3567575098485843"},"htmlText":"還是小心爲妙，他們唱多的理由是？裁員，消費數據有機會開始下降。經濟衰退快要到了。","listText":"還是小心爲妙，他們唱多的理由是？裁員，消費數據有機會開始下降。經濟衰退快要到了。","text":"還是小心爲妙，他們唱多的理由是？裁員，消費數據有機會開始下降。經濟衰退快要到了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991722569","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104243036,"gmtCreate":1665067595072,"gmtModify":1665067599207,"authorId":3565589093188306,"author":{"id":3565589093188306,"idStr":"3565589093188306","authorId":3565589093188306,"name":"hosw76","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69afc758bbb8ac22d4368e87a6d98541","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9991722569,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":687850763,"gmtCreate":1660882563656,"gmtModify":1676536753224,"author":{"id":"3554726406412305","authorId":"3554726406412305","name":"文件专输助手","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554726406412305","authorIdStr":"3554726406412305"},"htmlText":"美利堅 人類的希望","listText":"美利堅 人類的希望","text":"美利堅 人類的希望","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687850763","repostId":1148070609,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":73,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1148070609"}