Recently, multiple listed companies in the A-share lithium industry have successively disclosed their 2026 third-quarter reports or first three quarters performance forecasts, with overall performance improving.
Among them, the upward trend in lithium prices is an important reason for lithium companies achieving year-on-year performance growth in the first three quarters.
Specifically, on the evening of October 20, Tianqi Lithium Corporation released its 2026 first three quarters performance forecast, expecting to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 5.1 billion yuan to 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2,734.97% to 3,235.26%. Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. recently released its third-quarter report, showing that in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company with year-on-year growth of 147.24% and 19,540.5%, respectively.
Both leading companies mentioned in their announcements that the year-on-year increase in the selling prices of related lithium products brought a positive impact on corporate performance growth.
Zangge Mining Company Limited achieved year-on-year growth rates of 38.23% and 122.09% in operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company, respectively, in the first three quarters, with the main reason for the growth in total operating revenue being an increase in lithium carbonate revenue. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 8.84 billion yuan to 9.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 87.96% to 92.42%. During the reporting period, the company's lithium carbonate production capacity increased significantly year-on-year, and the combination of cost advantages and product price recovery became the key to performance growth.
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price has generally shown a trend of "rapid rise, high-level oscillation, another surge followed by oscillating decline," with the price center significantly higher than in 2025. It is worth noting that lithium carbonate futures prices have recently experienced significant fluctuations, attracting widespread market attention. As of the close on October 21, the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had fallen below 100,000 yuan per ton.
Li Pan, a lithium industry analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, told the reporter: "The recent sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures is essentially expectations running ahead and concentrated capital trading under the expectation of 'near-term tightness, long-term loosening.' The market has shifted from current destocking and peak-season production scheduling to mine restarts, new capacity releases, and downward revisions in demand growth around 2027, while macroeconomic sentiment and futures capital games have amplified the decline. At present, lithium carbonate inventories are still being destocked, and cathode and cell production scheduling remains resilient, indicating that the spot market has not yet seen comprehensive oversupply. Therefore, it cannot be confirmed solely by the futures pullback that the industry has entered a sustained downward turning point, but the price trend has weakened, and it is necessary to observe downstream absorption capacity and whether warehouse receipts and inventories shift from destocking to accumulation. It is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a destocking trend in the fourth quarter."
Bai Wenxi, chairman of Zhonghe Kunlun (Beijing) Asset Management Co., Ltd., believes that the recent pullback in lithium carbonate futures prices is not a confirmation of a downward turning point, but a wide-range bottoming under "strong reality vs. weak expectations." This market condition is a short-term oscillation and grinding bottom near the cost line, not a trend reversal. Whether lithium prices usher in a turning point still depends on the actual restart pace at the mine end and whether fourth-quarter production scheduling continues to be revised downward. "For related lithium industry companies, the current market conditions may shrink the window of lithium price dividends, and companies' strength in resource-end cost curves, integration and supply chain resilience, and overseas delivery capabilities will become increasingly important in future competition," Bai Wenxi said.
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