Gold Market Trend Analysis: On April 6, analysis of gold market drivers: International gold prices opened lower on Monday, pressured by better-than-expected unemployment and non-farm payroll data released last Friday, coupled with renewed threats from former President Trump regarding potential strikes on Iranian energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This pushed oil prices higher at the open, subsequently weighing on gold. However, gold's early session decline was less severe than anticipated due to its weakened correlation with rising oil prices and inflation concerns, alongside an overall decrease in the year-over-year and month-over-month averages for hourly earnings in March.
This week's focus will be on a series of US data, including the March CPI figures year-over-year and month-over-month. Market expectations currently point towards a significant rise, which could reinforce prospects of resurgent inflation, dampen the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts within the year, and even spark discussions about potential rate hikes. Such an outcome could substantially pressure gold prices lower towards 4460 or even 4300. Conversely, if the data underperforms expectations, it would likely lead to volatile, range-bound trading. Should the figures meet or fall below previous values, a significant rebound could occur, potentially driving prices towards the $4840 or $5000 marks.
Gold Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, the previous gold rally from 4100 to 4800 stalled, with the consecutive daily bullish candles interrupted by a large bearish candle. Currently, consecutive bearish daily closes below the Bollinger Band midline clearly indicate that gold has re-entered a weaker phase. If this weakness persists, it will likely test previous lower support levels. Therefore, with weakness confirmed this week, the outlook is bearish. The H4 chart shows a consolidation range with Bollinger Bands contracting and moving averages converging, suggesting no clear unilateral trend for now. Resistance is evident around 4800, with support near 4500. Until this range is broken, gold is expected to trade within it, awaiting a breakout above or below key levels alongside fundamental drivers to confirm a sustained directional move. Thus, for this week, gold is anticipated to oscillate between 4800 and 4500. As long as this range holds, traders can confidently execute range-bound strategies, adjusting only after a confirmed breakout. As noted last week, a break above 4800 could open the path towards 5000, while a break below 4500 might target 4350. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading, the strategy建议 is primarily to buy on dips, with secondary selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance is focused in the 4720-4770 zone, while key short-term support lies in the 4600-4550 area.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: Crude Oil Market Drivers: In early Asian trading on Monday (Beijing Time, April 6), US crude oil rose nearly 3%, trading around $110.42 per barrel. This follows renewed threats from former President Trump to destroy Iranian power plants, with Tehran showing little sign of accepting US demands to end hostilities. Oil prices surged significantly last Thursday, with US crude futures closing up 11.41% at $111.54 per barrel, marking the largest single-day absolute gain since 2020. Brent crude futures closed up 7.78% at $109.03 per barrel. The rally was driven by the former President's vow to continue pressure on Iran without a clear timeline for ending hostilities and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Technically, the medium to long-term uptrend channel for crude oil, initiated from the lows in December 2025, remains intact. Although last week's sharp volatility briefly pierced the Bollinger Band midline, rapid buyer intervention below demonstrated strong defensive interest near the key $100 psychological level. Currently, the upper Bollinger Band for crude oil is at $108.93 per barrel, which the current price has effectively breached, indicating clear short-term overbought conditions. Regarding the MACD indicator, US crude shows expanding red bars, with the DIFF and DEA lines hooking upward again at high levels, signaling a secondary release of bullish momentum. In contrast, Brent crude's MACD shows a death crossover where the DIFF line crosses below the DEA, reflecting greater strain on the international benchmark amid macroeconomic headwinds and highlighting extreme divergence in market sentiment between the two crudes. The RSI indicator shows US crude again approaching the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting accumulating risks in short-term speculation and warning investors to be cautious of potential sudden sell-offs due to profit-taking at high levels. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the strategy建议 is primarily to buy on dips, with secondary selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance is focused in the 119.0-124.0 zone, while key short-term support lies in the 105.0-100.0 area.
Comments