On Monday, August 17, international gold prices extended last Friday's rebound momentum, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar as recent soft economic data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The metal rallied to close higher, once again testing the descending trendline resistance level. While short-term momentum remains supportive of further gains, traders are closely monitoring the potential for a pullback at these resistance levels.
The 200-day moving average and the 30-week moving average serve as critical barriers. A decisive breakout above these levels would signal further upside, whereas a failure could trigger another decline toward fresh lows. In terms of price action, gold opened at $4,375.99 per ounce in Asian trading, initially dipping to a session low of $4,367.08. Buying pressure emerged during the 8:00 AM Asian session and again at 9:00 PM U.S. time, pushing prices to a high of $4,428.53 before settling at $4,416.48. The daily range spanned $61.45, with a gain of $40.49, or 0.93%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, August 18, gold opened with a firm tone, supported by ongoing bullish momentum from recent sessions and a soft U.S. dollar. However, the dollar index remains above its 200-day moving average, which could limit downside pressure and cap gold's upside. Additionally, oil prices have strengthened after the U.S. indicated it would not extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran. With the 60-day truce period having officially expired and Iran ruling out an extension, crude's bullish rebound could also constrain gold's advance.
Today's economic calendar includes U.S. July housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production, and pending home sales. The data is expected to be mixed, but based on yesterday's figures, gold still appears more likely to continue its rebound. As such, intraday strategy favors buying on dips and targeting resistance levels for potential short positions.
On the monthly chart, gold's July bottoming pattern has driven the expected rebound, but prices are now approaching trendline resistance. A sustained break above $4,520 would be needed to rekindle momentum toward the $5,000 level or new highs. Conversely, failure to break through could lead to another downturn. Therefore, traders may consider short positions near the $5,000 mark, with a stop-loss if the monthly close exceeds $4,500, signaling a reversal of the downtrend.
On the weekly chart, gold's rebound stalled near trendline resistance last week, but this week's renewed strength suggests another test. A breakout appears possible, though a pullback from resistance could offer buying opportunities near the 60-week or 100-week moving averages.
On the daily chart, gold has reclaimed its short-term moving averages and the 100-day moving average, signaling renewed bullish momentum. Prices could test trendline resistance and potentially the 200-day moving average. Support lies at the 5-day and 100-day moving averages, providing a foundation for further gains.
For intraday trading, key levels are as follows: For gold, support is seen at $4,410 and $4,390/$4,350, with resistance at $4,445 and $4,470. For silver, support is at $65.45 and $64.85, with resistance at $66.90 and $67.90. These levels serve as preliminary reference points; actual entry and exit prices will be based on real-time market conditions.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.
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