Against a backdrop of intense volatility in high-flying precious metal prices, exchanges are continuing to escalate risk control measures. On the evening of January 9, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) announced it would uniformly adjust the daily price fluctuation limits for platinum and palladium futures contracts to 16% and raise the trading margin requirement to 18%. Following multiple prior rounds of risk warnings and trading rule adjustments, this marks another instance of GFEX implementing "margin hikes and trading band expansions" for platinum and palladium futures, sending a clear signal for enhanced risk management. The move aims to "cool down" the market by raising margin levels and curbing excessive speculation. From a market performance perspective, platinum and palladium futures still exhibited significant intraday volatility despite the tightening risk controls. During the morning session on January 9, platinum and palladium continued their recent corrective trend, with the main platinum contract falling over 2% at one point, reflecting strong market caution. However, as selling pressure was gradually absorbed during the session, futures prices stabilized and rebounded, with bulls regaining momentum in the afternoon, leading to a rapid price surge. By the close of trading that day, the main platinum contract had risen 1.11% to 599.8 yuan per gram, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots. Palladium performed even more strongly, closing up 6.01% at 499.05 yuan per gram, with a trading volume of 39,200 lots. Industry insiders pointed out that after consecutive sharp rallies, platinum and palladium prices are already in a high range, making them highly sensitive in the short term to policy changes, margin adjustments, and fund flows, resulting in significantly amplified intraday volatility. On the evening of January 9, GFEX issued an announcement stating that, following research, it has decided that from the settlement time on January 13, 2026, the daily price fluctuation limits for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 16%, and the trading margin requirement will be adjusted to 18%. If the aforementioned fluctuation limits and margin requirements differ from the currently implemented ones, the larger limit and the higher standard shall apply. It is noteworthy that this move by the domestic exchange is not an isolated case; international markets are simultaneously strengthening risk controls. CME Group Inc issued a notice on January 8 (local time), announcing a comprehensive increase in performance bond margins for precious metal futures including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, which took effect after the close of trading on January 9. This marks the third time CME has raised margins for these products in nearly a month. From an industry perspective, the密集上调保证金 by major domestic and international exchanges reflects regulators' high level of concern about the intensifying short-term volatility in the precious metals market. The intention is to "cool down" the market by increasing trading costs and抑制过度投机. Some industry participants noted that a common characteristic of the current precious metals market is concentrated gains and highly crowded positioning. Once market expectations shift, it can easily trigger sharp pullbacks. Therefore, exchanges' preemptive strengthening of risk controls is seen as a常规且必要的安排. Guoxin Futures stated that the current consolidation in platinum and palladium primarily stems from a calming of market sentiment after consecutive large fluctuations and a temporary equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. On one hand, dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and persistent safe-haven demand provide underlying support for the entire precious metals complex. On the other hand, the exchange's margin hike requirements and the market's need to correct the previous overbought condition have also limited further upside for prices. Looking ahead, platinum and palladium are expected to continue tracking gold and silver in high-range震荡. Despite facing tighter risk controls and increased volatility in the short term, many institutions maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for platinum and palladium prices from a medium- to long-term perspective. Bank of America (BoFA) recently raised its price forecast for platinum in 2026, increasing its average price prediction to $2,450 per ounce; simultaneously, it raised its 2026 palladium price forecast to $1,725 per ounce. The bank believes that against the backdrop of the energy transition, structural changes in automotive catalyst demand, and supply constraints from some mines, the supply-demand dynamics for platinum group metals still have supportive factors. Xinhu Futures also noted that from a medium- to long-term view, the platinum market has experienced physical shortages for several consecutive years, with constrained mine production capacity (especially North American mines facing asset restructuring and by-product output reductions) and长期不足 in capital expenditure. While demand is weighed down by traditional internal combustion engine vehicle sales, increased platinum loading in catalysts and emerging applications like hydrogen energy provide support. A structural deficit is expected to persist, driving prices steadily higher. Palladium supply is expected to remain in a medium-term deficit, with inventories below multi-year lows and weak缓冲能力. However, multiple industry insiders caution that in an environment of持续强化风控 by exchanges and intensifying speculative trading, investors need to pay closer attention to position management and risk control, avoiding盲目追涨杀跌 during periods of high volatility. Overall, as domestic and international exchanges successively implement "margin hikes and trading band expansions," platinum and palladium futures are likely to enter a new phase of high-range consolidation and反复拉锯 in the short term. The market's transition from being "sentiment-driven" towards "rational pricing" is accelerating.
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