Earning Preview: First Solar revenue is expected to increase by 6.59%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish
Abstract
First Solar is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 24, 2026, Post Market; investors currently expect low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth and mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth, with debate centering on pricing resilience, bookings visibility, and near-term margin trajectory.Market Forecast
The market’s baseline for the to-be-reported quarter points to revenue of $1.56 billion, implying 6.59% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS around $5.13, or 9.22% higher year-over-year, and EBIT near $0.58 billion, up an estimated 4.70% from last year. Forecasts do not provide explicit gross margin or net margin guidance, so the focus is on revenue scale, operating earnings, and per-share profitability.The company’s main business remains module shipments, which management has geared toward higher-value U.S. demand and contracted utility-scale deliveries; consensus outlook anticipates steady execution and contract-driven volumes. The segment with the clearest momentum is utility-scale modules, where last quarter’s modules revenue was $1.59 billion, up 79.67% year-over-year, providing a high base from which this quarter’s revenue expansion is expected to build.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, First Solar delivered $1.59 billion of revenue, a 79.67% year-over-year increase, with a 38.29% gross margin, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $0.46 billion, a 28.59% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of $4.24, up 26.57% year-over-year. A key financial highlight was top-line over-delivery versus expectations, with revenue exceeding estimates by $33.67 million, while adjusted EPS came in roughly $0.01 below consensus.By business line, modules drove the quarter, generating $1.59 billion of revenue, up 79.67% year-over-year, reflecting throughput gains and the continued ramp of contracted deliveries.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core modules business: revenue scale, pricing resilience, and margin sensitivity
The modules business remains the primary revenue and profit engine for First Solar this quarter. Consensus revenue of $1.56 billion and adjusted EPS around $5.13 assume continued fulfillment against contracted schedules and a stable pricing environment supported by long-term agreements. The most direct swing variables for this quarter are shipment timing across large utility customers, realized average selling prices on modules delivered, and unit manufacturing costs as new lines continue to refine yields. Margin sensitivity persists because any downtick in realized pricing flows through relatively directly to gross margin, while cost progress depends on stable execution at scale. The last reported quarter’s 38.29% gross margin and 28.59% net margin set a high benchmark, and markets will parse whether this margin stack can be sustained as product and customer mix shifts this quarter. Freight and logistics normalization has helped, but residual supply-chain costs and timing of volume-scale benefits can influence cost per watt and operating leverage in the short run. The operating line will also be closely watched for disciplined expense control, given EBIT is forecast near $0.58 billion, which implies modest operating expansion versus last year without explicit gross margin guidance. Contract structures that include indexation or escalation clauses can buffer near-term pricing variability, but the degree to which those mechanisms translate into realized ASPs this quarter is an important uncertainty embedded in earnings risk. Put together, the expectation is for solid revenue and EPS growth year over year, while the gross-margin path will be assessed against both pricing and factory cost progress.Largest growth opportunity: U.S. utility-scale module deliveries and capacity expansions
Utility-scale deliveries in the U.S. remain the most visible growth vector over the next several quarters, and they remain the anchor of this quarter’s setup as well. The prior quarter’s $1.59 billion in modules revenue, up 79.67% year over year, established a high base that reflects ongoing execution through large, contracted programs; this quarter’s forecast builds on that foundation with revenue expected to grow 6.59% year over year. The pipeline is supported by multi-year agreements, and while not all expansions impact this quarter, investors have an eye on incremental U.S. capacity plans, including a newly announced 3.7 GW stateside module facility targeted to begin production in late 2026, as a marker of medium-term supply assurance to key customers. In the near term, throughput consistency, delivery phasing within the quarter, and any incremental efficiencies from previous line upgrades are the practical levers for the revenue and EBIT bridge. While new capacity will not materially contribute to this quarter’s numbers, visibility into commissioning milestones and capital readiness helps inform expectations for volume ramp and margin scale in subsequent periods, which in turn shape current-quarter sentiment and valuation multiples. Against this backdrop, investors will also look for color on commercial momentum, including booked volume additions and average contract tenor, given that bookings cadence can serve as a forward indicator for shipment lanes and capacity utilization.Key stock-price swing factors this quarter: bookings visibility, pricing, international headwinds, and legal backdrop
Three issues dominate the near-term stock debate around this print: bookings visibility, realized pricing, and international unit economics. Recent sell-side commentary has flagged limited booking visibility in some lanes and pointed to isolated project cancellations across the sector; investors will weigh any new disclosures about net bookings and cancellations against the magnitude and stickiness of the contracted backlog. On pricing, market participants are watching whether policy-related tailwinds and contract escalators are translating into higher realized ASPs this quarter, or whether competitive dynamics are diluting price capture versus expectations. International exposure adds complexity because tariff structures and local content rules can introduce margin variability by geography; commentary has highlighted potential tariff-related margin and volume impacts to non-U.S. facilities, and any discussion of cross-border flows, sourcing, or workaround strategies will be scrutinized. Layered on top is an active legal environment around photovoltaic intellectual property, where First Solar’s enforcement actions have been visible; while not a direct P&L driver this quarter, clarity on legal milestones and strategic objectives can shape the perceived durability of competitive advantages and the company’s pricing power framework. Finally, the cadence of cost reductions—both bill of materials and factory-level cost per watt—remains a crucial offset if ASPs soften. A favorable outcome for the stock into and after the print likely requires confirmation that aggregate mix, pricing realization, and cost progress can sustain a healthy gross-margin range not far from last quarter’s baseline, even if the exact percentage fluctuates with shipments and mix. Any indication of stronger-than-expected net bookings or improved pricing capture would support the case for the forecasted 6.59% revenue growth and 9.22% EPS growth, while outsized pressure in international margins or a notable slowdown in orders could challenge that setup.Analyst Opinions
Across rating actions and previews published from January 1, 2026 through February 17, 2026, bullish stances outnumber bearish calls by approximately 4 to 3, setting a constructive tone heading into the report. The bullish contingent emphasizes policy-supported demand durability, the strength of contracted revenue, and the prospect for ongoing margin resilience as scale increases.Mizuho maintains an Outperform view and recently adjusted its price target to $326, underscoring the expectation that First Solar can navigate near-term pricing variability while benefiting from supportive policy and a favorable delivery mix. Bank of America reiterates a Buy stance with a higher price target of $291, pointing to the alignment of contract structures and the pathway for operating leverage as volumes hold. RBC remains Outperform with a target of $258, highlighting confidence in execution through the current delivery window and an improving revenue and EPS profile consistent with forecasts for this quarter. Susquehanna stays Positive with a higher target in the low-$290s, consistent with the view that contracted channels and domestic demand dynamics can underpin revenue and earnings expansion even as the market debates bookings visibility and realized pricing.
Taken together, the bullish preview centers on three pillars. First, consensus forecasts—revenue of $1.56 billion, adjusted EPS of $5.13, and EBIT near $0.58 billion—are viewed by these institutions as achievable on solid execution, given the company’s contracted delivery schedules and last quarter’s strong performance. Second, margin durability is seen as attainable if realized pricing remains broadly stable and factory-level cost progress continues, with last quarter’s 38.29% gross margin serving as evidence that the cost structure can support robust profitability when volumes are aligned with plan. Third, medium-term expansion plans, including newly announced U.S. capacity expected to start in late 2026, provide added confidence in the revenue runway, even if those assets do not contribute to this quarter. While dissenting views exist, the majority of recent institutional commentary leans toward a positive setup predicated on the interplay of contracts, capacity, and cost discipline.
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