The current index shows no major issues, with the Hang Seng Index continuing its narrow-range fluctuation and closing with a slight increase of 0.05%. However, structural problems are quite pronounced. Technology stocks are under significant pressure. According to U.S. media reports on the 3rd, the Trump administration has agreed to hold talks with Iran in Oman on the 6th. While the surface appears calm, undercurrents are swirling; latest multi-source intelligence indicates a sustained increase in the U.S. Navy's military presence in the southern waters near Iran, with approximately 32 U.S. vessels remaining in the region as of February 3rd. Other various incidents of friction between the two sides will not be elaborated here. In short, the situation is not entirely peaceful. The gold stock mentioned yesterday, International Gold International (03939), rose over 7% again. The market is also paying close attention to the "U.S.-India" agreement: U.S. tariffs on India, which were as high as 50%, have been reduced to 18%. Both sides declared a "resounding victory," yet the details of the trade agreement remain vague. For instance, the Indian side did not provide any specifics regarding the claimed "India purchasing $500 billion worth of U.S. products," nor did it confirm the assertion that "India committed to halting purchases of Russian oil." After the India-Pakistan air skirmish, India has sobered up considerably, moving away from "self-congratulation" and finally becoming pragmatic. It is now widely understood that following the U.S. and West in empty gestures is futile, and steadfastly developing the economy is the true path. Stability in the surrounding region is also beneficial for us. Regarding the Panamanian government's ruling on the ports, the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council stated that Panama is facing the consequences of its own actions, and the Chinese government will definitely not stand idly by. The market awaits further developments on how this will be handled. This event has a relatively significant impact on capital markets as it involves the security of our overseas assets and also reflects our resolve and determination.
Today's laggards were technology stocks. The development of AI presents a mixed picture of hot and cold sectors. On the hot side, the memory industry continues to boom. On Wednesday, major South Korean memory manufacturer Samsung Electronics saw its market capitalization break through the important threshold of 1,000 trillion won (approximately $688 billion), with Samsung predicting sustained strong demand for memory chips. However, China's genuine ChangXin Memory Technologies is not yet listed. Conversely, A-share companies like Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ) and Cambricon (688256.SH) experienced breakdowns and declines. This dragged down stocks like Cambridge Technology (06166), which fell over 7%. Chip-related stocks generally weakened. On the cold side, as discussed yesterday, the gaming sector was impacted. The latest release of a legal productivity tool by Anthropic indicates it is directly competing with Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) enterprises, causing stock prices of legal software and data service-related companies to slide. This wave has now spread to broader software companies. For example, Japan's major IT service provider and system integrator, TIS, plunged over 15%, Trend Micro fell over 8%, and NS Solutions dropped nearly 7%. Additionally, WeChat has taken action against违规 links related to Yuanbao, restricting their direct opening within WeChat due to违规 behaviors such as excessive marketing and诱导 sharing. Tencent (00700) continues to be affected. Overall, times are tough for the tech sector. However, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns that AI will replace software and related tools, calling such thinking "illogical."
With technology weakening, the market can only turn to other directions, such as hydrogen energy, where fundamentals are being catalyzed: On February 3rd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology included hydrogen energy in its list of future industries, targeting green hydrogen production capacity to reach 250,000 tons/year by 2025, accelerating industrialization; Sichuan has listed hydrogen energy as the second major direction for new growth tracks; Jilin, Henan, and others have introduced policies like preferential electricity prices for green hydrogen and减免 highway tolls, indicating the industry is entering a "mandatory implementation" stage. Related stocks such as Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582), Refire Group (02570), and Yihuatong (02402) surged over 18%, 12%, and 7% respectively. The previous sector focus highlighted coal, with the logic being the Indonesian government's proposal for significant production cuts. Indonesian miners have already suspended spot coal exports. In a recent statement, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association mentioned that the production quotas approved under the annual work plan are far lower than last year's tonnage. Individual mining companies face cuts between 40% and 70%, and some may be forced to halt operations if production falls below sustainable levels. China is Indonesia's largest importer (importing 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's exports). The suspension of exports will affect 5.3% of China's thermal coal supply, increasing inventory pressure for power plants in the southeastern coastal regions. Coal also benefits from additional factors: Beijing issued blue warnings for strong winds and cold waves, with temperatures expected to drop to around -9°C. Two government departments are coordinating部署 for防范应对 low-temperature, rain, snow, and冰冻 disasters. Stocks like Yankuang Energy (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Coal Energy (01898) all rose over 8%.
On February 2nd local time, SpaceX announced on its X (formerly Twitter) official account the acquisition of xAI. This marks the birth of the most expensive unicorn ever, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence, rockets, space-based internet, and direct-to-mobile communications to create a complete closed loop from energy production and storage to consumption. It must be said that Musk is always full of surprises, but his broad direction is indeed grand and imaginative. "Space computing power" might be the core focus after the merger. Separate market rumors suggest that Musk's team secretly visited several Chinese photovoltaic companies, focusing on those with Heterojunction (HJT) and Perovskite technology routes, as China's PV manufacturing contributes over 70% of global capacity. Even more impressive was CIMC (02039), which rose over 5% again today. The sustained strength of this stock has two reasons: firstly, it didn't move during the previous wave of aerospace gains, creating a catch-up demand; secondly, the stock combines themes like containers and data centers, with particularly high景气度 in the container sector, as evidenced by the performance of shipping stocks. Looking further at space-based photovoltaics, regardless of the battery technology path, upstream raw materials stand to benefit. Therefore, stocks more worthy of attention include GCL Technology (03800), Xinyi Solar (00968), and Flat Glass (06865), which also performed well today, rising over 2% each. Xinyi Glass (00868), benefiting from its exposure to automotive and construction glass, showed stronger performance, rising nearly 5%.
On February 2nd, the signing ceremony for the first batch of projects in Shanghai involving the acquisition of second-hand housing for保障性租赁住房, supported by China Construction Bank, was held. Using Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District as pilot zones, the initiative focuses on smaller, older second-hand apartments where owners have expressed willingness to置换 for new properties within the same district. The second-hand housing acquisition measure addresses specific problems; focus is on the inventory digestion progress in major first-tier cities. First-tier city property developers like Yuexiu Property (00123), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), and China Jinmao (00817) all rose over 5%. More elastic stocks included Seazen Group (01030) and Sunac China (01918), which surged over 9%. The industrial chain direction primarily involves building materials, such as Huaxin Cement (06655), China Resources Building Materials Technology (01313), and pipe-related China Liansu (02128). The logic for these building materials is stronger, as fiscal expenditure typically increases after the Chinese New Year, leading to accelerated infrastructure projects across regions, prompting the market to price in expectations提前.
The 2026 Spring Festival travel season commenced on February 2nd, with civil aviation passenger volume reaching 2.19 million on the first day, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Domestic bookings rose 16% year-on-year, while international bookings increased 7% year-on-year. Ticket prices are expected to rise significantly starting February 7th, with simultaneous improvements in load factors and yields. International route recovery is good, competition is rational, and ticket prices and yields have upward potential. In 2025, the three major airlines significantly narrowed their losses (China Eastern Airlines lost 1.3-1.8 billion yuan, reducing losses by about 64%-74% year-on-year; Air China lost 1.3-1.9 billion yuan, reducing losses by about 25%-49% year-on-year), benefiting from international route expansion, improved load factors, and effective cost control. China Eastern Airlines (00670) and China Southern Airlines (01055) both hit multi-year highs, with the three major airlines rising over 5% today.
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