While HBM3E prices continue to climb, leading memory manufacturers have already initiated a new round of competition for market share around HBM4. According to a report, SK Hynix has moved up the mass production schedule for its M15X factory in Cheongju by four months, with plans to begin mass production of 1b DRAM wafers for HBM4 in February next year. Regarding production capacity, the factory's initial plan is for approximately 10,000 wafers, which is expected to increase to tens of thousands by the end of next year. Insiders revealed, "Equipment investment and installation are underway, and the plan has been adjusted to achieve faster and larger-scale mass production." It is worth noting that M15X is also referred to as the "dedicated HBM4 factory." Industry experts believe this acceleration in production demonstrates SK Hynix's confidence in HBM4 supply. To date, SK Hynix has completed the technical preparations for the early-stage production at M15X, including the certification of the 1b HBM4 process. Its HBM4 wafers utilizing improved circuitry are scheduled to complete wafer manufacturing by the end of this month, with final samples of its next-generation 12-layer HBM4 memory to be delivered to NVIDIA in early January next year.
Concurrently, expectations for shipments of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin 200 platform, which will utilize HBM4, are becoming increasingly clear. Market forecasts indicate that shipments of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server racks could reach 55,000 units next year, representing a 129% year-on-year increase. The Vera Rubin 200 platform is expected to begin shipments in the fourth quarter of next year, with order visibility for some manufacturers extending as far as 2027.
The three major players are now fiercely competing for HBM4 market share. To this day, SK Hynix still maintains a leading position in the global HBM market. Data from the market research firm Counterpoint Research shows that in the third quarter of this year, SK Hynix's global HBM revenue market share reached 57%. Although this represents a decline, it remains better than the same period last year. In comparison, the market shares of Samsung and Micron were 22% and 21%, respectively.
However, this current landscape may be disrupted in the future. According to recent news from a South Korean newspaper, an NVIDIA-related team visited Samsung to report on the testing progress of HBM4 System-in-Package (SiP). The meeting revealed that Samsung's product achieved the best performance among all memory manufacturers in two key metrics: operating speed and power efficiency. Based on this excellent performance, NVIDIA has also given the green light for the supply of Samsung's HBM4. It is reported that NVIDIA's requested supply volume of Samsung's HBM4 for next year significantly exceeds Samsung's internal forecast. This is expected to significantly contribute to the improvement of Samsung's performance. A Samsung insider stated, "Unlike the previous HBM3E, we are in a leading position in HBM4 development." Reportedly, considering the speed of expansion and production capacity of its Pyeongtaek P4 production line, Samsung is set to formally sign a supply contract in the first quarter of next year, with official supply expected to commence in the second quarter.
Beyond Samsung, Micron is also participating in the HBM4 competition. Its latest financial report indicates that its HBM4 is on schedule for mass production in the second fiscal quarter of 2026, achieving high yields and a production ramp. HBM4 utilizes advanced CMOS and advanced metallization process technologies for both the base logic chip and the DRAM core chips, all of which are designed and manufactured independently by Micron.
Huatai Securities points out that by 2026, the capital expenditures of the world's top three memory companies are likely to be concentrated on HBM/DRAM. According to TrendForce predictions, the DRAM bit growth rate in 2026 could reach 26%. A memory super-cycle is expected to become a major theme in the semiconductor industry in 2026, but it will exhibit characteristics of structural differentiation. Demand for Batch ALD equipment, testing equipment, and packaging processing equipment is expected to see significant growth.
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