Exceptional Value with High Long-Term Certainty: Time to Focus on the Premier Leader

Deep News03-30

The world, from the very beginning, can be said to be inherently unfair. Some creatures are destined from birth to be fattened and slaughtered by humans; others are fated to be meticulously cared for. Of course, some are born as humans. However, the future lives and destinies of people born in different eras and into different families are also vastly different. This principle applies to animals, to people, and indeed to all things. Lei Jun once made a famous statement: "Even a pig can fly in a wind tunnel." Most people know Lei Jun as the founder of Xiaomi, but many may not be aware that he spent over a decade with Kingsoft. Those years were grueling, truly exhausting. After leading Kingsoft to its IPO, he chose to take a break and resigned from his key positions at the company. It was during this period that Lei Jun had a crucial realization: a person's achievements depend not merely on their individual capability or how far they can go, but rather on the size and breadth of the赛道 they are on. Some businesses, no matter how well managed, have a limited ceiling. Others, however, possess the potential to enable greatness. Undoubtedly, hard technology sectors like the internet, cloud services and big data, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence represent inherently promising fields. The leading companies in these sectors can achieve market capitalizations in the trillions, tens of trillions, or even several tens of trillions. In contrast, some small and medium-sized industries might have a total addressable market of only a few billion, inherently limiting the growth potential of even the most successful leader within them.

Looking at the performance of the US capital markets over recent decades, the Nasdaq has significantly outperformed the Dow Jones. This remarkable return has been driven primarily by tech giants represented by the FAANMG stocks. Currently, these tech behemoths contribute over half of the Nasdaq's total market capitalization. Overseas tech giants like Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, and Google have long surpassed trillion-dollar market caps yet continue to exhibit high-speed, stable growth. The core reason lies in the vast and expansive赛道上 they operate on. Theoretically, compared to their overseas counterparts, domestic Chinese tech companies have the potential to grow even larger. Why? The reason is simple: China's population base is substantially larger than that of the United States and other nations. On one hand, a larger user base means bigger consumer markets and, consequently, the generation of more massive datasets. For world-changing technologies like AI, data is the core, while algorithms play a supporting role. On the other hand, China possesses a larger pool of engineers, enabling more, better, and lower-cost innovation through an "engineer advantage," ultimately providing an edge in global expansion. Therefore, the total market capitalization of domestic tech companies is destined to far exceed that of the US in the future. Understanding this, when we re-examine domestic tech companies like Tencent, Xiaomi, and SMIC from this perspective, it becomes clear that, while they appear much larger than ordinary enterprises, they are still in their relative infancy.

Why Consider the Southern恒生科技ETF (520570)? However, to invest in China's genuine hard tech sector, attention must primarily turn to the Hong Kong market. After all, most of China's leading hard tech assets are listed in Hong Kong, such as Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Meituan. Furthermore, even leading A-share tech companies, when aiming for the next level, often opt for dual listings in both A-shares and H-shares, like BYD. Hong Kong remains China's financial gateway to the world; its status as an international financial center is unchanged. As domestic wealth continues to grow, driving demand for offshore asset allocation and global investments, Hong Kong is poised to be a core beneficiary of this trend. Therefore, focusing on Hong Kong for tech exposure is undoubtedly correct. That said, we must acknowledge that while the hard tech赛道 offers immense opportunity, it is also extremely complex and specialized. Iterations in chip manufacturing processes, breakthroughs in large model algorithms, and the progress of AI commercialization all fall far outside the circle of competence for the vast majority of retail investors. The allure of the tech sector lies in its boundless potential, but this is precisely the source of its risk. Individual stock black swan events, disruptive technological shifts, and industry reshuffles – any of these variables can severely impact a retail investor's capital. Consequently, for most people, instead of trading individual stocks alone and chasing volatility, selecting a corresponding ETF that bundles a basket of stocks is a wiser approach. This allows investors to capture the growth红利 of China's burgeoning hard tech industry while mitigating the risk of individual stock blow-ups through diversification. For investors with trading capabilities, the high volatility of the tech sector can also present opportunities for additional gains through intraday trading.

Among the numerous ETF products, the Southern恒生科技ETF (520570) stands out as a top choice. This product tracks the恒生科技指数, often referred to as the "Hong Kong version of the Nasdaq," which is a flagship index for China's new economy leaders. The index selects the largest tech companies listed in Hong Kong, with the top ten constituents accounting for nearly 70% of the weight, and the top five alone representing nearly 40%, closely aligning with the "winner-takes-all" dynamic prevalent in the tech sector. In terms of sector distribution, Information Technology accounts for nearly 50%, and Consumer Discretionary makes up nearly 40%, together comprising over 90% of the index. This provides a balanced exposure to both soft and hard tech, covering core AI and computing power players like Tencent, Alibaba, and SMIC; leaders in smart vehicles and consumer electronics like Xiaomi and BYD; and platform companies deeply tied to domestic consumption recovery, such as Meituan, Trip.com, and Kuaishou. It offers comprehensive coverage across five core future tech赛道上: Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Driving, Biotech, Robotics, and Cloud Computing.

More importantly, the constituent companies of the Southern恒生科技ETF (520570) are no longer the internet firms that relied solely on traffic红利 for growth. They have fully embraced the AI revolution, undergoing a fundamental transformation. Tencent's Hunyuan, Alibaba's Tongyi, and Baidu's Ernie large models have been extensively integrated into dozens of business scenarios including advertising, e-commerce, social media, cloud computing, and gaming. The赋能 of AI technology on traditional businesses is now tangibly reflected in financial reports. Increased monetization rates from improved ad targeting precision, profit expansion from a higher mix of high-margin AI products in cloud businesses, and the重构 of commercial loops through AI agents embedded in social and transaction scenarios – these changes are opening new growth ceilings for these leading companies.

Of course, selecting an ETF involves more than just the tracked index; the product's holding costs and trading experience are equally crucial. The Southern恒生科技ETF (520570) excels in these aspects. One of its biggest advantages is its low fee structure, with a management fee of just 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, resulting in a total expense ratio of only 0.2%. These fractional percentages matter; for example, holding 100,000 yuan in this ETF compared to a mainstream product with fees of 0.5%+0.1% per year would save 400 yuan annually. Compounded over the long term, this represents significant savings. Additionally, another major advantage of this product is its broker settlement model. Compared to bank settlement, this reduces the proportion of settlement reserve funds, supports large-scale subscriptions and redemptions more smoothly, and ensures greater accuracy in tracking the index. For investors who prefer trading over-the-counter, the Southern恒生科技ETF联接 (QDII) (Class A 020988 / Class C 020989) is available, which also boasts some of the lowest fees in its category, offering clear long-term cost advantages.

Why Consider Investing Now? The present moment represents an optimal time to consider participating in the Southern恒生科技ETF (520570). Firstly, valuation attractiveness is exceptional, with a substantial safety margin. Following market adjustments, the恒生科技指数 currently trades at a PE-TTM of around 21 times, sitting below the 22nd percentile of its five-year history. Its projected 2027市盈率 is even lower, at approximately 15 times. Compared horizontally with other major global tech indices, its valuation advantage is extremely pronounced. In other words, buying now allows access to China's core tech leader assets at a price below 40% of their average historical valuation. Even a reversion to the historical median valuation would imply significant upside potential. For such high-quality, undervalued assets, short-term market adjustments and declines should not cause excessive panic; instead, they present windows of opportunity for strategic entry. Investors can also leverage the high elasticity of the恒生科技指数 to capture trading opportunities through tactical波段 operations.

Secondly, fundamentals are continuously improving, with inflection points in earnings evident for the majority of tech leaders. On one hand, domestic consumer demand is steadily recovering, and the macroeconomy is stabilizing and rebounding. Cyclical businesses deeply linked to economic activity – such as e-commerce retail, online marketing, local services, and travel – are experiencing a broad-based recovery, driving revenue and profits for leading companies into an upward trajectory. On the other hand, the commercialization of AI technology is entering a phase of tangible returns. Its positive impact on the three core businesses of advertising, gaming, and cloud computing has been verified in recent earnings reports. Sustained growth in EPS will provide the most solid foundation for market capitalization. This is further reinforced by substantial share buybacks and dividends from leaders like Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com, which reward shareholders with real capital and enhance the asset's safety cushion.

Thirdly, and most importantly, we are standing at the dawn of a new technological revolution. The industrial transformation driven by the AI wave is accelerating. While public awareness of AI two years ago centered on large language models like ChatGPT, the last couple of years have seen a marked increase in practical AI applications. For instance, the recent launch of the AI-powered "Doubao" phone caused a stir, with many speculating its AI capabilities could颠覆 traditional mobile apps, becoming the ultimate mobile interface. Autonomous driving is transitioning from "usable" to "user-friendly," and the integration of AI with biopharmaceuticals and synthetic biology promises groundbreaking industry advancements. The constituents of the恒生科技指数 are precisely the core participants in this wave of domestic AI revolution. They possess three key advantages: capital, data, and engineering talent, giving them an absolute first-mover advantage in technological iteration and commercialization. Over the next three to five years, valuation dispersion and the premium for industry leaders will only become more pronounced.

Time is the friend of quality assets and the enemy of mediocre ones. Every passing second fuels technological progress in human society. Real-time urban traffic data, operational parameters from factory equipment, and behavioral preferences of millions of users – these datasets accumulate like a rolling snowball. Breakthroughs in AI technology are transforming this data into tangible productivity and commercial value. Technological iteration is never linear. Each industrial revolution gives birth to a cohort of great companies and bestows wealth红利 upon investors who correctly identify the trend. For ordinary investors, there is no need to gamble on finding a specific dark horse company or to understand complex chip processes or large model algorithms. By simply choosing the right tool, one can steadily capture the红利 of China's tech ascendancy. The Southern恒生科技ETF (520570) is precisely such a tool, tailored for the average investor.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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