In a dramatic reversal less than a month after completing the world's largest IPO and listing, SpaceX shares have faced a sharp downturn in the secondary market. Even its formal inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index this week failed to prevent the stock from falling consecutively and dropping below its issue price, highlighting a significant divergence between short-term market sentiment and Wall Street's grand narrative about its long-term value.
On Wednesday, SpaceX shares closed at $148.30, marking the second consecutive day below the $150 IPO price. The stock has fallen nearly 7.6% over the two days and is down 26.5% from its closing high of $201.80 on June 16th. The inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, an event typically seen as a major positive, did not lift the stock but instead became a trigger for concentrated profit-taking. Following the underwriters' exercise of the "greenshoe" overallotment option, SpaceX's IPO last month ultimately raised a net $85.7 billion, solidifying its position as the largest IPO in history.
Index Inclusion Effect Falters as Profit-Taking Drives Short-Term Moves
Analysts point out that expectations for the Nasdaq index inclusion were likely already priced into the stock, while the recent weakness in the Nasdaq overall has added extra pressure. Simultaneously, 12 IPO underwriters collectively issued research reports on Tuesday, all assigning Buy or equivalent ratings, yet this rare show of concentrated bullishness also failed to effectively support the share price.
SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 is a direct result of revised rules for new stock additions, coming less than a month after its June 12th listing. Conventionally, inclusion in a major index drives passive buying by ETFs and mutual funds tracking that benchmark.
However, the market action did not follow this script. On Tuesday, SpaceX shares fell nearly 7% in a single day. On Wednesday, the stock touched an intraday low of $145.20, its lowest since listing, falling nearly 2.9% before paring most losses to close down about 0.8%. This marked a third consecutive day of declines, with a three-day drop exceeding 8%.
Some analysts and market strategists believe the positive impact of the Nasdaq 100 inclusion was already priced in by the market. Combined with the generally weak environment for the Nasdaq recently, the anticipated inflows from passive funds were insufficient to absorb the profit-taking by active investors.
Reviewing the post-listing trajectory, SpaceX shares surged significantly in the initial days after the debut, reaching a closing high of $201.80 on June 16th, four days after listing, before entering a volatile downtrend. This recent string of losses culminating in a break below the issue price signals the formal end of the post-IPO honeymoon period.
Wall Street Bullish Consensus Masks Wide Valuation Methodology Gaps
Despite the stock price pressure, Wall Street's overall ratings remain optimistic. According to media tallies, SpaceX has received 14 Buy ratings. The average price target across all ratings is approximately $247, while the average among Buy ratings is around $260, implying a company valuation of roughly $3.4 trillion.
However, the valuation methods and price targets among various institutions show considerable divergence. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas issued the highest target of $300 with an Overweight rating, using a 15-year discounted cash flow model that forecasts SpaceX revenue reaching $3.3 trillion and EBITDA hitting $2.7 trillion by 2040.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu set a $255 target for SpaceX, employing a sum-of-the-parts valuation that separately values the AI business, Starlink, and space launch operations, totaling approximately $3.3 trillion.
RBC analyst Ken Herbert provided a $225 target, using a 2029 EBITDA multiple approach. Within this, the Starlink business is valued at about 15 times its projected $63 billion EBITDA, with the AI business also receiving a 15x multiple.
Bank of America analyst Ron Epstein's target is $235, emphasizing that the Starship rocket business is a core variable, suggesting its success could reduce orbital launch costs by a further 90% compared to the Falcon 9.
In contrast, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale presented a striking $800 target price, implying a valuation exceeding $10 trillion. He called SpaceX "one of the most defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century," supported by a 27x multiple on projected 2031 EBITDA.
Analysts with cautious stances are relatively in the minority, with MoffettNathanson assigning a Neutral rating and CFRA recommending Sell.
Competitive Landscape Shifts as Blue Origin Secures First External Funding
As SpaceX navigates its first post-listing adjustment, its primary competitor, Blue Origin, is rapidly bolstering its resources.
Reports indicate that the private rocket company owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is completing a $10 billion first external funding round at a $130 billion valuation. Coatue Management is contributing $4 billion, other large investment institutions are providing $4 billion, and Bezos himself is adding $2 billion. For the past 25 years, Blue Origin's funding has come almost entirely from Bezos personally.
This marks the first time Blue Origin has raised external capital since its founding. This fundraising occurs against a backdrop of significant technical setbacks for the company.
Earlier this year, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded during a static fire test, destroying the company's sole launch pad. In a May interview, Bezos stated, "We finally have enough clarity on the path forward and the financial picture that it's a good time to bring in outside investors."
Regarding its business layout, beyond rocket launches, Blue Origin plans to operate TeraWave, a satellite broadband service for large enterprise clients, using the New Glenn rocket to place satellites into low and medium Earth orbit.
Amazon is also set to launch its consumer-facing Amazon LEO satellite internet service, competing with SpaceX's Starlink, though the latter currently holds a significant advantage in the number of satellites in orbit.
Valuation Digestion and Profitability Remain Core Tensions
The underlying logic of the current stock price correction lies in the market's reassessment of SpaceX's high-valuation framework. Using the average Buy target of $260, implying a roughly $3.4 trillion valuation, this far exceeds the combined market capitalization of Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Those two companies together are projected to generate nearly $800 billion in revenue and over $300 billion in EBITDA by 2027, approximately ten times SpaceX's projected figures.
SpaceX's valuation premium relies on the realization of rapid growth. A Bank of America model forecasts that SpaceX's space business will grow at an average annual rate of 8% until 2031, the Starlink business at 60% annually, and the AI business at nearly 140% annually from 2025 to 2031. Under this scenario, SpaceX's revenue would approach $800 billion by 2031, with EBITDA around $580 billion.
However, SpaceX has not yet achieved overall profitability. The balance between high capital expenditures and cash flow generation capability is the core tension most closely watched by investors currently.
Prospectus data shows SpaceX generated approximately $18.674 billion in revenue in 2025 and $4.694 billion in Q1 2026. Until its grand vision translates into sustained profitability, the process of digesting the stock price at elevated levels is likely to continue.
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