Dongxing Securities released a research report stating that the declining growth rate in the express delivery industry has heightened the importance of retaining existing customers. Service quality is now being prioritized, which aids in achieving high-quality and sustainable development. The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with superior service quality, such as ZTO EXPRESS-W and Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd., as well as Sto Express Co.,Ltd., which has shown the most significant improvement in operational data. The main views of Dongxing Securities are as follows.
In March 2026, the total business volume completed by national express delivery service enterprises was approximately 17.24 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The growth rate has fallen to a relatively low level. The industry's per-ticket revenue remained relatively stable.
The parcel volume growth rate in March dropped below 5%. Sto Express's growth rate was significantly higher than the industry average. The industry's counter-involutionary measures continue to have a squeezing effect on volume figures. Specifically, same-city parcel volume decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, while inter-city parcel volume increased by 5.0% year-on-year. Sto Express's volume growth in March was notably higher than other companies. Besides its organic growth, the consolidation of Daniao also contributed significantly to this increase. Yto Express's volume growth was slightly above the industry average, while SF Express and Yunda Holdings experienced slight year-on-year declines in volume. Benefiting from its high growth, Sto Express's market share increased to 14.5% in March, establishing a 2% gap over Yunda and consolidating its market position.
The overall per-ticket revenue level remained stable, but Yto Express saw a relatively significant sequential decline. In terms of pricing, the industry's average per-ticket price in March 2026 increased by 1.2% year-on-year, showing slight growth compared to the same period last year, indicating stability in industry pricing. Among the Tongda-affiliated companies, Sto Express and Yunda achieved year-on-year increases in per-ticket revenue of 11.4% and 9.2%, respectively, in March. The rise in Sto Express's average price is largely linked to the consolidation of Daniao, whose parcels command a relatively higher average price. Yunda's increase in per-ticket revenue is related to its strategic contraction, having abandoned some low-price customers, resulting in recent performance showing a decline in market share but a significant improvement in per-ticket revenue. Yto Express was the only listed express delivery company to experience a year-on-year decrease in per-ticket revenue. Sequentially, Yto Express's per-ticket revenue decreased from 2.40 yuan in February to 2.14 yuan in March. This decline was more pronounced than those of Sto Express and Yunda. Dongxing Securities suggests this may be due to its revenue recognition timing.
Investment Recommendation: Although the industry's parcel volume growth rate has currently fallen to a low level, the per-ticket revenue of the Tongda-affiliated companies remains robust. This reflects the strong supportive effect of counter-involution on industry pricing. The institution believes the industry is currently in the early stages of an upward profit cycle. On April 15th, Sto Express released its first-quarter performance forecast, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 to 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61% to 112%, which also confirms that industry profitability is currently recovering.
Risk提示: Intensification of industry price wars; Duration of counter-involution measures falling short of expectations; Rising labor costs; Changes in policies.
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