GF SEC released a research report stating that BLACK SESAME (02533) has honed its mass production experience through the scaled shipments of its A1000 series, and the company possesses outstanding hardware R&D capabilities, with core employees generally having over 15-20 years of industry experience and high team stability. A target price of HK$28.46 was given, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The main views of GF SEC are as follows:
From a total market perspective: The domestic autonomous driving chip industry is experiencing rapid growth, and it is likely that only a few players will achieve self-research capabilities in the short to medium term. The rising penetration rate of autonomous driving is driving the rapid expansion of the autonomous driving chip market, while robotics are expected to open up new demand increments in the long term; therefore, the autonomous driving chip赛道 is expected to maintain high-speed growth for several years. Concurrently, constrained by the costs associated with OEMs self-developing autonomous driving chips—such as high time/financial/human resource investments, high barriers to software ecosystems, and limited industry roles hindering economies of scale—the bank judges that the vast majority of OEMs will still need to purchase neutral third-party autonomous driving chip platforms. Furthermore, amidst geopolitical changes, domestic suppliers' market share is expected to further increase.
From a product perspective: Products are continuously iterating, and the ecosystem is maturing. BLACK SESAME demonstrates outstanding hardware R&D strength, with core employees typically boasting over 15-20 years of experience and high stability. Leveraging the scaled shipments of the A1000 series, the company has thoroughly refined its mass production experience. The new-generation mid-range autonomous driving computing platform, the C1200 family, aligns with the evolution trends of automotive EE architectures and cost-reduction demands, showing considerable potential for future commercialization. The new-generation high-computing autonomous driving platform, A2000, can cover scenarios from NOA to Robotaxi and, according to the company's public channel information, is planned to begin mass production in 2026.
From an ecosystem perspective: Positioning as a Tier 2 supplier, the company collaborates with leading Tier 1 suppliers and algorithm providers to jointly advance commercialization. Adhering to the traditional automotive industry chain's value boundaries, the company continuously refines its hardware and underlying software ecosystem, leaving considerable value space for partners and sufficient room for OEMs to develop differentiated autonomous driving features. The bank judges that it is highly probable the new-generation products will further unlock opportunities with key white-label customers.
New growth increments: Promising prospects for edge AI. The company is replicating its automotive-grade chip capabilities into the robotics industry, accelerating scale through external mergers and acquisitions, and has launched the SesameX commercial deployment platform.
Earnings forecast: Revenue for 2025-2027 is projected to be RMB 830 million, RMB 1.38 billion, and RMB 2.11 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 75.8%, 65.5%, and 52.8%. The bank assigns the company a reasonable 2026 valuation multiple of 12x PS, corresponding to a reasonable value per share of HK$28.46, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk warnings: Downstream customer expansion and shipment volumes may fall short of expectations; product technology iteration may lag expectations; supply chain instability; domestic autonomous driving industry progress may be slower than anticipated.
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